LocationsWhy Climate Security Needs a Superhero – Its Name, is Foresight
October 16, 2024
Climate, peace, and security— admittedly, when I first heard these three elements together, the connection wasn’t obvious. “How does climate affect peace,” I wondered. Interestingly enough, they are deeply interconnected. Climate security refers to the ways in which climate change exacerbates existing social, economic, and political vulnerabilities, potentially leading to conflict and instability. It turns out, the concept has been around since 2008 and is gaining renewed attention as extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, outpacing the ability of many countries to respond.
This issue is particularly urgent in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a biodiversity superpower - home to over 40% of the world’s biodiversity. The region holds one-third of the planet’s freshwater resources, and its forest biomass is twice the world average. Yet, it is also one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The Amazon is experiencing its lowest water levels in 120 years, with droughts affecting over 60% of its hydroelectric capacity. In 2022 alone, over 2 million people were displaced due to floods, storms, and drought. LAC also faces significant challenges related to conflict and fragility. The region has the highest global levels of homicides, an ever-growing threat from organized crime, and is the second most unequal region in the world, leading to decreasing trust in democratic politics and increasing polarization.
And if this didn’t sound bad enough, one striking fact stands out: climate change could push an additional 100 million people into poverty by 2030. By 2050, pessimistic scenarios estimate that LAC alone will have 17 million internal climate migrants. It is the perfect storm; no pun intended. I find myself tempted to put on my Planeteer hat and summon the early nineties cartoon superhero, Captain Planet – “Earth, fire, wind, water, heart!” After all, at times it does sound like a problem only he could solve.
The Role of Foresight in Climate Security
Maybe in future world we could bring Captain Planet to life. But for now, let’s settle on a happy medium – a method that allows us to be inspired by the future, minus the fictional character. Foresight. It has the ability to empower policymakers and stakeholders to anticipate potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate them before they escalate into full-blown crises. This proactive approach is crucial because the impacts of climate security are often long-term and complex, making them difficult to address through reactive measures alone.
Adam Forbes, Climate and Security Specialist for LAC, highlights a critical challenge: "We’re asking people to imagine a future that doesn’t exist yet. It may occur, it may not." This uncertainty is what makes climate security a pressing concern. It acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating conditions that can lead to violence, insecurity, and conflict. The interplay between climate change and security is a two-way street; not only can climate change contribute to instability, but insecurity itself can hinder efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts, creating a vicious cycle that deepens vulnerability and increases the likelihood of crises.
It is under this critical situation that participants convened for the Academy of Experts on Climate, Peace and Security - Building Integrated Climate, Finance and Peace Approaches in Latin America and the Caribbean to Accelerate Climate Action earlier this year in Panama City. Participants were drawn from governments and UNDP offices across the region.
Deploying Foresight: The 7 Questions
The world of foresight is vast, and the tools and methods are even more so. For the purposes of the Academy, we adapted the 7 Questions Futures Technique – a survey method used to explore future possibilities by asking a set of open-ended questions to knowledgeable stakeholders. According to foresight practitioner Tanja Hichert, “Analyzing the responses to the seven questions can help identify conflicting or challenging views of the future and extract deep information about underlying concerns in a policy area.” It can be particularly valuable when you need insights and opinions from a diverse group of people, especially when dealing with complex issues – like climate security. We wanted to give UNDP colleagues and policymakers a sense of how strategic foresight can help them start thinking climate security challenges. Participants were assigned to one of seven tables, each dedicated to exploring one of the seven questions:
Question 1: Oracle – What do you see as the critical issues for the future of climate security?
Conceptual and Thematic Issues: Experts highlighted the need for a better definition and agreement on what constitutes climate security, particularly with a focus on human security, indicating that a holistic and inclusive understanding of climate security is lacking. There was also an emphasis on ensuring interconnected approaches to avoid working in silos, reflecting a need for integrated policies that address water, food, livelihoods, and human rights within the broader context of urban resilience and just energy transitions.
Trending Concerns: The rising mistrust among stakeholders and the erosion of trust in the democratic process are seen as critical issues. This trend could undermine efforts to implement effective climate security strategies, as public and stakeholder support is essential for the success of such initiatives.
How to Address These Issues: Experts suggest that South-South cooperation, particularly at the subnational level, could be key to addressing these challenges. There was also a strong emphasis on reversing the lack of technology transfer and prioritizing sustainable development, as well as the need for localized and context-specific approaches.
Question 2: Optimistic – Imagine 10 years from now, what would a positive outcome look like climate security and what would be the signs of success?
Trending Positive Outcomes: Experts envisioned a future where environmental degradation is reversed, and humanity adopts more sustainable consumption patterns. This vision includes stronger governance and recognition of indigenous rights, which are seen as critical to achieving climate resilience. Success would be marked by the implementation of adaptation measures that reduce socio-economic inequalities, the establishment of new markets and economic models that are sustainable, and the creation of integrated programs linking peace, climate, and security.
Indicators of Success: The presence of more financial support, technology transfer, and resilient organic agriculture would signal that progress is being made. These indicators suggest that economic and technological advancements, coupled with strong governance, are essential for achieving long-term climate security.
Question 3: Pessimistic – What would you see as a bad outcome? How could this happen?
Potential Negative Outcomes: A pessimistic scenario included exacerbation of tensions to the point where cooperation for climate action becomes impossible. Participants envisioned this leading to increased conflicts over food, water, and livelihoods, heightened military actions, and social instability. Experts also warned that poor adaptation measures could worsen inequalities, and environmental degradation could spiral into a vicious cycle, further destabilizing the region.
Underlying Causes: These negative outcomes could be driven by denial of the destabilizing effects of climate change, lack of trust in government, and the criminalization of environmental defenders. The mention of illicit economies highlighted the potential for climate insecurity to fuel illegal activities, compounding the region's socio-economic challenges.
Question 4: Looking to the future – What important decisions need to be made in the short term to ensure a successful long-term outcome?
Key Decisions and Programmatic Needs: Experts called for consensus on the conceptual framework of climate security, strengthening local governance, fighting corruption, and increasing resource allocation for disaster risk management. They stressed the importance of robust governance structures, integrated financing mechanisms, and urged policymakers to take into account existing data gaps.
Question 5: Limitations: What might prevent these decisions from being made?
Barriers Identified: Experts identified several barriers, including international pressure on national agendas, political crises, lack of political will, and competing economic interests. The fragmented thinking of government policies and the influence of big business lobbying were also seen as significant obstacles. These limitations highlight the difficulty of aligning short-term political and economic interests with the long-term goals of climate security.
Impact of Limitations: These barriers could prevent the necessary decisions from being made, resulting in inadequate responses to climate challenges. The lack of stakeholder awareness and the competing priorities for finance further complicate efforts to implement effective climate security strategies.
Question 6: Looking Back – What can we learn from our experiences? What mistakes have been made in the past that we can learn from?
Past Mistakes: Experts pointed out several past mistakes, such as working in silos, top-down approaches, and the absence of an integrated approach. They also stressed the failure to effectively communicate between government bodies, cooperation agencies, and civil society. The lack of binding targets and the existence of perverse incentives in policies have hindered progress.
Learning from the Past: To avoid repeating these mistakes, experts suggested flexible, systematic and inclusive consultation processes, highlighting the need adaptive and iterative strategies necessary for the dynamic nature of climate security challenges.
Question 7: Legacy – If you had a mandate for change, free of constraints, what would you do to ensure a successful future for climate security?
Mandate for Change: Given a mandate for change, experts would prioritize environmental education, promote sustainable consumption patterns, and ensure socio-economic and environmental justice through public policies. Some participants even discussed the idea of redirecting military funding towards sustainable development to create national climate security strategies with guaranteed financing.
Focus on Vulnerable Populations: There was a strong emphasis on focusing on the most vulnerable populations and ensuring that no one is left behind. This reflects the need for equity and justice in climate security strategies. Strengthening international cooperation and making binding commitments on greenhouse gas emission were also seen as critical to ensuring a successful future.
Conclusion
While we may not have a superhero to save the day, we have something even better—our collective wisdom, strategic foresight, and the power to make change happen. After diving into the complexities of climate, peace, and security in LAC, it’s clear that this is no ordinary challenge. Climate change is occurring at such a rapid pace that we cannot base future decisions solely off what has gone before – we need to find ways to anticipate new futures. According to Adam Forbes, whether it’s “helping policymakers ensure climate policies on issues like critical minerals are peace positive, assisting local authorities plan for scenarios on climate mobility, or generating integrated approaches to climate adaptation that break down traditional institutional silos," strategic foresight has a range of potential applications for climate security.