Addis Ababa, 14 February 2025 – How can countries emerging from governance crises rebuild trust, restore stability and create economic opportunities that build strong, inclusive futures? A new report launched by AFSIT, a joint United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)-African Union (AU) programme, and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), on the margins of the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the AU> The report provides a bold, data-driven roadmap for navigating complex transitions in particular country contexts.   

The new analysis - titled Advancing Inclusive Development: Policy Options for Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Mali and Niger - utilizes the International Futures (IFs) modelling system, a data-driven tool that integrates historical trends across governance, economics, demographics, and security to project long-term development outcomes. Using this platform, the report models alternative policy scenarios that assess how targeted interventions — such as governance reforms, economic diversification, and infrastructure investments — could shape their future trajectories. 

By leveraging foresight analysis and scenario planning, the report equips policymakers with pragmatic, future-oriented strategies. 

Delivering opening remarks, Former President of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, highlighted the role of regional leadership in fostering resilience. “Every transition is an inflection point. This report offers a practical roadmap for leaders to turn governance challenges into opportunities for long-term stability.”

UNDP Assistant Administrator and Regional Director for Africa, Ahunna Eziakonwa emphasized that transitions must be seen as opportunities to build stronger, more inclusive systems. “It is not about quick fixes — it is about reshaping the development narrative in transition countries. Governance, economic resilience, and human capital investment must go hand in hand to break the cycle of instability and chart a course for long-term prosperity."

The findings confirms that governance breakdowns, economic stagnation and security threats have compounded challenges in these five nations, but it also points to clear opportunities. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, despite their security crises, have the potential to harness regional trade and invest in youth-led industries. Guinea and Gabon, rich in natural resources, can move beyond extractive industries to create value-added economic opportunities. Across all five countries, investments in governance reforms, digital and physical infrastructure and climate-smart agriculture would accelerate progress toward inclusive development.

The analysis underscores that nations with strong institutions and inclusive economic policies are better positioned to withstand shocks and prevent backsliding into fragility.

Executive Director of ISS, Dr. Fonteh Akeum, stressed the importance of forward-looking strategies. "Transition contexts are fragile, but it is also a chance to reimagine governance, rebuild economies and renew social contracts.”

The report is a product of the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT). AFSIT was established to provide technical and policy support to African nations undergoing political transitions, ensuring that governance shifts do not derail progress toward peace and prosperity.

As Africa navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, the actionable policy recommendations in the report offer a roadmap for leaders, institutions and citizens committed to inclusive, sustainable and forward-thinking development.