In the Sahel region, challenges such as droughts, floods, resource-related conflicts, insecurity from religious extremism, and forced population displacement converge to create interconnected shocks. Blerta Cela, Director of the UNDP Regional Stabilization Facility for Liptako-Gourma and Lake Chad, underscores the importance of community-driven responses. While acknowledging the intricate interplay between climate and violence risks and their compounding effects, she advocates for targeted investments in on-the-ground responses to fortify resilience and cultivate lasting peace in the Sahel.

Serious threats loom over the livelihoods and lives of the population.

Solange, a farmer from Kassalare in Hadjer Lamis, Chad, fled her village in 2021 due to armed conflict. She and her family found refuge in Baltram, where, through the Regional Stabilization Facility, the Chadian government supports the integration of displaced populations. A few months after her arrival, Solange shared, “After working so hard on our land, it was difficult to leave. Fortunately, in Baltram, we felt welcomed. We were allocated land and provided with equipment to restart our agricultural activities. Today, cultivating maize and rice, I have regained the sense of normalcy we had in Kassalare. This gives me hope for our entire community.”

In the Sahel, where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, the region's 50 million inhabitants face heightened risks, particularly women and girls reliant on livestock and agriculture.[1] The increase in extreme weather events further amplifies the risks of disasters, jeopardizing the livelihoods of the most vulnerable. In 2022, for example, Chad experienced the heaviest rainfall in the last 30 years, displacing one million people and damaging over 465,000 hectares of farmland.[2] In Niger, two years of flooding have led to particularly devastating human and material consequences.[3]

For local communities, these climate change effects compound the challenges of violence related to banditry, inter-communal conflicts, and threats from religious extremism. 

Climate Change and Risks of Violence: Complex Interactions and Multiplying Effects

Observations in our intervention areas indicate how the effects of climate change interact with political and social pressures to accentuate existing vulnerabilities and tensions. In the Sahel, increasingly unfavourable climatic conditions, the increasing scarcity of land and water resources and the forced displacement of over 5.6 million people[4] have intensified existing tensions, sometimes leading to conflicts, such as those in southwestern Nigeria between migrating Fulani herders and indigenous Yoruba farmers.

In the Lake Chad region, insecurity and armed conflicts have frequently hindered vital access to water, thus intensifying rivalries between farmers and herders in the face of seasonal precipitation fluctuations.

Moreover, studies from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute[5] indicate that climate change influences the decision-making, recruitment, and tactics of terrorist groups in the Sahel, who often target marginalized youth with economic and food incentives in exchange for loyalty. According to the African Center for Strategic Studies, religious extremism incidents in the Sahel represent 40 percent of all Islamist militant group activities in Africa.[6]