As the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) assesses the impact of almost 14 years of conflict in Syria, it is important to note that the collapse of the previous regime at the end of 2024 may have opened a window of opportunity, placing Syria at the threshold of a new era. While there are hopeful signs, the road to a new Syria remains long and fraught with obstacles. The task of recovery—both in terms of socio-economic and physical reconstruction—is immense and should not be underestimated. Bringing Syria back on a path towards peace and prosperity is essential for long-term stability in the region.

This report examines several scenarios for how quickly the economy could return to its 2010 level. This will be crucial for generating public resources needed for investment in social services, social protection, and infrastructure to support economic recovery. No scenario projects a recovery period shorter than the duration of the conflict itself. Beyond the enormous reconstruction challenge, which this report provides an updated estimate for—running into hundreds of billions of dollars—bringing home almost six million Syrians is estimated to require US$12–US$24 billion in support funding to ensure their successful reintegration, long-term stability, and contribution to social cohesion.

However, recovery is not only about economic reconstruction. National cohesion needs to be rebuilt; democratic, accountable, and rule-based governance established; and a new social contract needs to emerge, one that reflects a transformed Syria, ensuring equal opportunities and a voice for every citizen.