Sagaing and Mandalay Vulnerability Overview

The Sagaing Fault’s
Socioeconomic Foundations

When Big Quakes Strike Weak Ground:

On March 28, a powerful earthquake rocked the Sagaing Fault, shaking the already precarious foundations of the Sagaing and Mandalay regions in Myanmar. The disaster laid bare a landscape already marred by conflict, displacement, and economic instability. It highlights how natural disasters can exacerbate existing hardships, deepening an already multifaceted crisis that demands a nuanced and localized response.

Source: Based on USGS

WEAK GROUND on The SAGAING Fault

While the earthquake delivered a sudden and devastating blow, it strunk a foundation already weakened by years of systemic fragility. Both Sagaing and Mandalay were already grappling with profound challenges across nearly every dimension of society—challenges that the disaster has now deepened and exposed.

In terms of socio-economic fragility, both regions had seen sharp economic decline since 2021, with disrupted markets, reduced household incomes, and growing reliance on informal coping strategies. Food insecurity had also taken hold, particularly in rural Sagaing, where conflict and displacement disrupted agriculture and supply chains. Meanwhile, basic services such as education and healthcare had eroded significantly.

Underpinning all of this is the backdrop of conflict and insecurity: both regions, though to varying degrees, are marked by armed resistance, militarized control, and a shrinking space for civilian governance. This has intensified migration pressures within a context already defined by significant internal displacement and access challenges. Sagaing has the highest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Myanmar, with nearly 1.3 million people uprooted. Youth vulnerability is high, with one-third in both regions expressing a willingness to migrate if given the opportunity.

The following sections detail, based on earlier research by UNDP, how each of these vulnerabilities shaped the ground into which the earthquake struck.

Sagaing Region

Socio-Economic Fragility

Household incomes have
collapsed: Over 40% of
Sagaing households
reported a decline in income
in 2023, often due to job
losses, market closures, or
destroyed assets. 74% of
households are living below
the Minimum Expenditure
Basket (MEB).

Household incomes
have collapsed

40%

57% of households in Sagaing rely on a single income source, increasing exposure to shocks.

With persistent inflation and cost-of-living pressures, essential goods and food items are increasingly unaffordable, especially for low-income and rural households.

Minimal income
diversification

57%

Only 35% of the population
reports access to the internet
(lowest nationally). The region
also suffers from frequent
internet shutdowns and power
cuts, creating a heavy reliance
on battery-powered lighting and
undermining education and
productivity.

Critical digital and
energy infrastructure
gaps

35%

Food Insecurity

Conflict and displacement have
decimated agriculture in what
was previously a productive
region for rice, oilseeds
(sesame, groundnut), and
pulses. Farmers have fled, fields
are abandoned, and market
chains have collapsed. Rice
growing area decreased by 19%
by 2023 compared to 2020.

Severe food
system disruption

The Acute Food Insecurity of
Sagaing region is classified as
Phase 3 - Crisis (on a scale of 1
to 5, with 5 being catastrophic).
Many households rely on food
aid or community networks to
survive.

High levels of
food insecurity

Due to road closures,
insecurity, and market
fragmentation, prices for
essentials have soared while
availability has plummeted.

Rice price increased by 214%
by the end of 2024 since 2021.

Rising food prices
and limited
market access

214%

Phase 3

‘Crisis’

Phase 3

‘Crisis’

19%

Collapse of service delivery

Human
Capital
and Basic
Services

Health centers and schools have closed or been
repurposed for military use. Teachers and health
workers have fled or gone underground, and routine
services are not functioning in many townships.
Sagaing has the highest unmet healthcare needs (15%)
in Myanmar.

Gender-specific vulnerabilities

Women and girls are likely to face heightened risks of
violence, trafficking, and social exclusion, especially in
displacement settings. Reflecting downgraded roles of
women and girls, nearly 40% of youth consider
husbands beating their wives under certain
circumstances acceptable.

Limited access to education

School attendance has plummeted. Over half (56%)
of children were not enrolled in school in the
2023/2024 academic year. Many families cannot
afford school-related expenses or feel too insecure
to send children.

56%

15%

40%

Conflict and Insecurity

Widespread and severe armed conflict

Sagaing has become one of the epicenters of resistance against the military regime. Armed clashes between People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), local resistance groups, and the military-backed Pyu Saw Htee militias have escalated significantly since the military takeover in February 2021, resulting in a high overall civilian vulnerability to conflict.

Frequent military operations and airstrikes

Areas like Kanbalu have faced systematic violence, including raids, targeted assassinations, airstrikes, and mass arson of homes. Entire villages have been depopulated.

Source: UNDP / ACLED data, March 2025

DISPLACEMENT and ACCESS

Displacement: As of March 2025, nearly 1.3 million people were already displaced in Sagaing. The combination of direct violence and destruction of homes has led to chronic displacement, with families forced to flee repeatedly. Many displaced remain in makeshift shelters without access to services.

Source: UNHCR, 10 March 2025

Access: The earthquake will not only compound the displacement crisis, but also weaken the already limited aid access. Sagaing is one of the regions with the highest access constraints. Damaged infrastructure and airstrikes following the earthquake will undermine relief efforts.

Intense out-
migration
for survival

Migration is often a last resort as
families flee both conflict and
economic desperation. Many head
to urban areas, border zones, or
across into India and Thailand.

Migration
Pressures

Youth-led
migration
surge

Young people are particularly likely
to leave, either to avoid
conscription, seek employment, or
pursue education in more stable
areas. Nearly 34% of Sagaing’s
youth would leave the country if
given the opportunity.

Youth Vulnerability

With schools shut, jobs lost, and
communities under threat, youth are
stuck in limbo. Some join armed
resistance; others fall into informal
or dangerous labor sectors.

Youth facing multiple
layers of risk

Over 78% of youth are already
feeling stressed or anxious mainly
due to economic distress and
political turmoil. The long-term
effects of interrupted education and
trauma exposure could create a
generation of under-skilled,
disconnected, and displaced young
people.

Loss of future prospects

Extreme Heat and Drought

CLIMATE

ENVIRON-
MENT

Sagaing lies at the heart of Myanmar’s Dry Zone, where
temperatures have reached extreme highs and
droughts are more frequent. In 2024, a record
temperature of 48°C was recorded in a neighbouring
town in the Dry Zone.

Flooding and Degradation

Sagaing has experienced intensified riverine flooding
due to deforestation and erratic rainfall along the
Chindwin River. Some townships have lost over 40% of
forest cover since 2021, intensifying land degradation,
water scarcity, and ecosystem collapse.

Mining and Ecology

Hundreds of gold and rare earth mining sites have
severely polluted rivers and degraded arable land.
These practices drive displacement, destroy
livelihoods, and fuel local ecological collapse—
making Sagaing one of the most environmentally
and conflict-stressed regions in Myanmar.

100's

48°C

40%

Mandalay Region

Socio-Economic Fragility

While urban Mandalay
retains some market activity,
rural communities face
reduced agricultural output,
inflation, and limited
livelihood options. 56% of
households are living below
the Minimum Expenditure
Basket (MEB).

Economic stress,
especially in rural
areas

56%

50% of households in Mandalay
rely on a single income source,
leaving them vulnerable to
economic shocks.

With persistent inflation and
cost-of-living pressures,
essential goods and food items
are increasingly unaffordable,
especially for low-income and
rural households.

Minimal income
diversification

50%

Though 84% of households
report access to grid electricity,
the actual average daily supply
is only 7.9 hours, among the
lowest nationally.

Electricity access is
widespread but
unreliable

84%

Food Insecurity

The Acute Food Insecurity of Mandalay region is classified as Phase 2 - Stressed (on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being catastrophic). While faring better than Sagaing, Mandalay still grapples with agricultural challenges due to drought, soil degradation, and high input costs.

Stressed food security
classification

Phase 2

‘Stressed’

Phase 2

‘Stressed’

Rice prices increased by 141% by the end of 2024 compared to 2021. Though Mandalay is a trade and logistics hub, conflict in surrounding regions (like Sagaing and Magway) has affected the inflow and outflow of goods.

Rising food prices
and disrupted
value chains

141%

Local food systems remain vulnerable to both climate shocks and conflict disruptions, and require support for restorative and climate-resilient agriculture. The total rice- growing area declined by 30% between 2020 and 2023.

Need for resilience
building

30%

Uneven access to education and
healthcare

Urban centers retain functioning schools and clinics, but rural areas face chronic staffing shortages and service disruptions. Nearly one-fifth (18%) of children were not enrolled in school in 2023/2024 academic year.

Human
Capital
and
Basic
Services

Better digital inclusion in cities, but
rural gaps persist

Urban youth are relatively well-connected, while rural students face limited access to the internet and devices, deepening the education gap.

Continued gender disparities

Despite being the second most vibrant economic hub in the country, the average monthly income gap between male and female youth in Mandalay remains high, with more than 200,000 MMK difference. Most pressingly, women in rural Mandalay remain underrepresented in local governance and livelihood decision-making.

18%

200,000

MMK

200,000

MMK

Conflict and
Insecurity

Targeted conflict zones

Though not as heavily impacted as Sagaing, at least six
townships in Mandalay—including Madaya and Myingyan—
are classified as conflict-exposed.

Urban-rural conflict dynamics

Urban Mandalay remains relatively stable but is under growing as PDFs operate in surrounding areas. This strategic proximity makes the region highly sensitive to spillover violence.

Emerging risks from military conscription and raids

The military conscription has heightened tension, especially among young men in towns and peri-urban areas.

Source: UNDP / ACLED data, March 2025

Displacement and ACCESS

Displacement in Mandalay is not on the scale seen in Sagaing, but localized movements have occurred, particularly in rural townships such as Madaya and Myingyan. These have been driven by fear of forced conscription, proximity to conflict zones, and now, earthquake-related destruction. The March 28 quake damaged homes and public infrastructure in peri-urban areas, pushing already vulnerable households—many of whom were living near the poverty line—into deeper instability.

Access in Mandalay varies sharply between the urban core and rural outskirts. While urban Mandalay remains accessible and administratively functional under SAC control, delivering aid to rural and peri-urban areas has been complicated by damaged roads and bureaucratic delays.

Source: UNHCR, 10 March 2025

Moderate
but rising
migration

Young adults and families are
increasingly migrating for work,
especially from rural townships.
Unlike Sagaing, migration here is
more economic than survival-driven.

Migration
Pressures

Seasonal and
circular
migration
patterns

Many seek short-term work in more
stable areas of Myanmar or
neighboring countries, returning
home during off-seasons.

Youth Vulnerability

Economic stagnation, deteriorating
public services, and security risks
have curtailed aspirations.

Youth feel growing
frustration and
restlessness

With limited formal job creation,
youth in Mandalay often rely on
family businesses, day labor, or small
trading.

Engagement in informal
economy common

32% of Mandalay’s youth would consider leaving the country if they
had the opportunity. However, they face barriers related to
documentation, costs, and risk perception.

Moderate migration intentions

32%

Flood Impact on Crop Loss

CLIMATE

ENVIRON-
MENT

The Yagi floods submerged 40,000 hectares of
agricultural land.

Extreme Heat and Drought

As part of the Dry Zone, Mandalay is highly exposed to
prolonged droughts, water stress, and rising
temperatures. Over 900 deaths were reported in April
2024 alone due to excessive heat.

Flood Impact on People

Over 396,000 people in the Mandalay Region were
affected by the Typhoon Yagi floods in September
2024, representing nearly 6% of the regional
population. The floods underscored Mandalay’s
vulnerability to climate-induced disasters even
beyond the Dry Zone’s typical drought profile.

396K

40K

900

Theme	Sagaing	Mandalay
Conflict Intensity	Extremely high; chronic violence and displacement	High in specific townships; spillover risk from surroundings
Displacement	Widespread, recurrent, with many long-term IDPs	Localized, temporary displacement in hotspot zones
Food Security	Severe disruption; agriculture collapse; Level 3 vulnerability	Moderate strain; Level 2 vulnerability
Poverty	Deepening poverty, sharp income collapse	Economic stress with urban-rural disparities
Service Access	Severely limited; schools, health, electricity broken down	Uneven; functioning in cities, poor in rural townships
Migration	High and often forced displacement; cross-border movements	Moderate economic migration; some circular labor flows
Youth Vulnerability	High risk; exposure to violence, dropout, recruitment	Frustrated youth; employment and education constraints