LocationsForesight in Action
October 9, 2024
From Signals to Strategy
Foresight in Action: UNDP Kosovo’s* Strategic Approach to Programme Development
The Context
The popular perception of strategic foresight is that the methodology is only useful when you have the ‘luxury of time’ or ‘privilege of stability’ to look into the future. In 2024, UNDP Kosovo decided to put this perception to the test by applying strategic foresight to their programme planning process. They found that the reality was quite different.
Few teams in UNDP face such severe and potentially paralyzing uncertainties as the UNDP Kosovo team. “The Kosovo Office approached us to help them apply foresight,” explains Ievgen Kylymnyk, Innovation Specialist at UNDP's Istanbul Regional Hub and facilitator of this exercise. "They wanted to develop a direction to inform the next five years of their office programming. And they believed that foresight would strengthen their plan and make it ready for the future. So we developed a custom process based on the resource and time constraints they faced and the objectives they wanted to achieve."
The Process
Ievgen worked with the UNDP Kosovo office to assemble a core team of six members, called the “Futures Intelligence team”’, chosen for their diverse expertise and openness to think outside the box. What’s notable is that they didn’t need to have experience in foresight, just an appetite to learn. This team would go through a multi-step process to identify and define less traditional development areas that UNDP Kosovo was perhaps over-looking or hadn’t forayed into thus far. To lay the groundwork, Ievgen conducted a two-hour briefing session, "I explained what strategic foresight is and what horizon scanning is, using some of the materials from the UNDP’s Futures Portal. I also walked them through the FTSS (Future Trends and Signals System)- something we used quite extensively throughout the exercise”.
The “Futures Intelligence team” didn’t need to have experience in foresight, just an appetite to learn.Ievgen Kylymnyk, Innovation Specialist at UNDP's Istanbul Regional Hub
Armed with a thorough understanding of “signals of change” and where to look for them, the team engaged in a three-week “scanning sprint.” They collected 42 signals of change from local media and research outlets. These signals covered a wide range of topics, including political tensions and regional stability, economic growth and challenges, digital transformation and innovation, social issues such as emigration and social protection, environmental concerns like air pollution and water scarcity, infrastructure projects, renewable energy initiatives, cultural heritage preservation, and education.
The Future Trends and Signals system leverages the diversity of UNDP's global network across geographies, cultures, backgrounds, nationalities and functions, with more than 400 employees from completely different disciplines across ±170 countries collecting, collating, and interpreting thousands of signals that may not 'make the news' but are relevant for international development.
The team now had a thorough understanding of the changes that were happening both within Kosovo and globally, that could be relevant to the team’s work in the future. This laid the groundwork for a two-day in-person futures workshop.
Here, the team mapped the trends that they had collected so far. They had intense discussions, and together, they prioritized critical uncertainties, aligning on the two most important ones: the degree of polarization in Kosovo society and the quality of governance. It’s interesting to note that they chose to focus on uncertainties where they had a sense of agency rather than other aspects that they felt they had no influence over.
Prioritizing uncertainties based on a sense of agency instead of the traditional approach highlights the flexibility of foresight - it can be tweaked according to local context and the objectives of the exercise.
Although this is, perhaps a departure from the “traditional” foresight approach - where the most important or impactful uncertainties are prioritized - it highlights the flexibility of foresight - it can be tweaked according to local context and the objectives of the exercise. Using the axes of polarization & quality of governance (See Figure 1), they developed four distinct scenarios using a 2x2 matrix framework, pushing themselves to imagine multiple possible futures.
Figure 1: Using the axes of polarization & quality of governance, four distinct scenarios were developed to imagine multiple possible futures.
These future scenarios gave the team an understanding of how these different uncertainties could pan out in the longer term. They now needed to brainstorm which development areas could be considered across all these futures,- in other words- where UNDP’s work could be future-proof. In yet another demonstration of the flexibility of the foresight approach, the team used the well-known three-horizon approach - but with their own twist.
For each scenario, the team answered two main questions:
- What are the things that we are already doing that we need to continue doing in this scenario?
- What new things do we need to start doing in this scenario, i.e., what innovations are needed in this scenario? And what experiments can we start doing to test these innovations?
Using this unique approach, the team identified 3 new areas that, before the exercise, the team hadn’t even considered. These were ‘Prosperous and healthy aging population,’ ‘Brain Gain,’ and ‘Green technologies for sustainable development’. The team almost immediately started recognizing the value of the discussion. Instead of focusing on ‘the largest’ areas, which seemed to be the most obvious ones, the team discussed new areas for the office that may have been overlooked thus far. This injected a sense of excitement that was almost palpable in the workshop. They then delved deeper into the underlying systems and worldviews that shaped these new areas, using the Causal Layered Analysis too.
This part of the journey concluded with a discussion on UNDP Kosovo's intent and identity, reflecting on UNDP’s role and qualities in the local ecosystem, formulating their aspirations and strategic direction.
The team almost immediately started recognizing the value of the discussion. Instead of focusing on ‘the largest’ areas, which seemed to be the most obvious ones, the team discussed new areas for the office that may have been overlooked thus far.
Outcomes and Impacts:
Throughout this process, the team identified novel programmatic areas, as Ievgen explains: "The programmatic areas that we narrowed in on were the result of long and hard reflection on the part of the team- chosen not just based on the strategic importance to UNDP Kosovo but based on how unexplored this area was and the opportunities that it presented." This had a profound impact on the team's motivation and their sense of purpose as they felt that "as the UN, this is what we should be working on".
The exercise has also infused a better understanding and appreciation within the team itself. Valbona Bugojevci, Assistant Resident Representative and Programme Coordinator, says, “Before the foresight discussions, people knew little about the expertise and experience of others in the team, especially in their previous careers. Leveraging the team’s wealth of knowledge, experience, and expertise to jointly discuss issues and propose solutions was extremely useful. Additionally, the team appreciated being heard and having a key role to play in decision-making about future programmes”.
The foresight process directly influenced the strategic decisions made for the team’s programme planning. Ievgen confirms, "There is a direct link between the foresight work we did and the decisions we made regarding the areas that the UNDP Kosovo team will be focusing on for the next programme period."
Leveraging the team’s wealth of knowledge, experience, and expertise to jointly discuss issues and propose solutions was extremely useful. Additionally, the team appreciated being heard and having a key role to play in decision-making about future programmes.Valbona Bugojevci, Assistant Resident Representative and Programme Coordinator
Learnings and Advice
The lessons offered by Ievgen in leading this exercise are valid for anyone attempting a foresight exercise. One of the primary challenges is shifting mindsets from day-to-day problem-solving to future-oriented thinking. Ievgen notes, "More often than not, we see people recording 'current events' rather than events or observations as signals. And even more difficult is to leave the ”solutioning mode” where people immediately start jumping towards thinking of solutions for problems that they observe during this phase." To address these challenges, Ievgen constantly reminded the team that they were in the exploration phase, looking for events and signals without judgment. He reflects, "Foresight requires you to diverge first before converging on any issue or solution. It requires you to be open. And it is quite difficult for people to observe an issue in the scanning phase and avoid developing strategies to solve it."
Time management emerged as another significant challenge. Despite having a dedicated team for the foresight exercise, members still had to balance this work with their regular responsibilities. Valbona agrees, adding, “Developing foresight demands patience, creativity, and forward-looking vision. It is a fact that daily tasks and tight deadlines often hinder teams from planning for the future, particularly in unpredictable UNDP settings. Nevertheless, when teams are given the chance to engage with foresight exercises and allocate sufficient time for it, they will recognize its advantages”.
Ievgen suggests that more time for reflection between stages in the process could be beneficial, proposing "a break of one or two weeks between the identification of the new issue areas and the iceberg analysis of these areas, to enable the team to truly internalize these decisions and have a chance to research and discuss with a broader set of colleagues."
Managing expectations is also crucial. Ievgen observed that people often expect “the magic of foresight” to produce immediate, dramatic insights. However, he emphasized that the value of foresight lies in collective exploration and the reflection it enables. What you get out of the process depends on what you put in. "The method only facilitates the process, and the facilitator only offers guidance and some calibration. But if the team itself cannot think more broadly beyond the ”usual,” the result will be quite shallow," Ievgen explained.
People often expect “the magic of foresight” to produce immediate, dramatic insights. However, the value of foresight lies in collective exploration and the reflection it enables. What you get out of the process depends on what you put in.
Next Steps
The Futures Intelligence team plans to use foresight to evaluate the final programming plan. "Ideally, we will go back to the foresight process for some stress-testing of the strategy and plan, looking at questions like 'Are we ready? Do we have the necessary capabilities? Is this a relevant strategy for us?'" says Ievgen.
While transformative, the foresight journey of UNDP Kosovo is just the beginning of a more comprehensive programme planning process. Valbona says, “The team will continue to build on the momentum and forward-thinking mindset cultivated through this exercise as they prepare for the development of the new UNDP programme in 2024”.
In challenging times, UNDP Kosovo has demonstrated that foresight isn't a luxury—it's a necessity. As organizations worldwide grapple with increasing complexity, UNDP Kosovo's experience illustrates the power of strategic foresight in reclaiming agency and shaping a resilient future.
