OVERVIEW

Competition is intensifying to explore and understand space – and mine its resources. The global space economy grew to $546 billion in 2023. Like the oceans, space has been exploited with little care for its sustainability. From satellites launched by over 90 countries, to ideas for manufacturing in space, to asteroid mining, space is a zone of increasing competition – but not yet of overt conflict. Who controls space and decides how these benefits should be shared?

SIGNALS

Space is increasingly congested. The number of satellites (10,125 in June 2024) has hugely expanded since 2020, increasing by 30% each year. Private actors are growing fast (over half of all satellites actively orbiting earth are owned by US company SpaceX). Congestion means pollution. Space is cluttered with over 30,000 pieces of space debris. Unregulated light pollution from satellites is already making it difficult for astronomers to observe the night sky. It could also harm ecosystems on earth, as well as doing cultural damage to communities that assign special value to the night sky.

As competition for scarce resources on earth heats up, attention is turning to opportunities in space. The European Space Agency is investigating the possibility of beaming solar electricity from space to earth. The decreasing cost of travel into space suggests that asteroid mining could be commercially feasible in the next decade, especially given the concentrations of valuable metals found in metallic asteroids.  

All this makes space an intriguing, profitable and contested field – and raises the stakes of who owns or controls it.  New space blocs are emerging – like the Artemis Accords and the Sino-Russian Lunar Agreement – that are attracting countries to join one or the other. Russia has said it will work with China to build a nuclear power plant on the moon to power their joint lunar base.

Developing countries are joining the space race. India became the first country to land on the lunar south pole. Uganda, Zimbabwe and others are launching their own satellites and investigating the potential of space for development purposes, like information for environmental management or manufacturing in microgravity. South Africa and China have signed agreements to partner on space exploration. New multilateral groupings include the African Space Agency, the Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency and the Arab Space Coordination Group226. 

SO WHAT FOR DEVELOPMENT?

As more nations become spacefaring and the space economy becomes more mission critical for life on earth, governance of the lunar commons becomes more critical. New space blocs may mean rivalries on earth are simply transposed to space: a new conflict zone? These risks can be reduced if space blocs remain open to all, focused on scientific goals and international cooperation. Multilateral cooperation is essential to govern space responsibly and preserve the space commons for the benefit of all, current and future generations.

Like the oceans, space is being exploited without much regard for sustainability. To keep space viable for future generations requires international regulations that prioritize sustainability - can we avoid overexploitation and pollution or are we transposing our unsustainable practices from planet to planet?  Encouraging signs of concern for sustainability include the US imposing the first space debris fine; and the European Space Agency looking to develop reusable spaceships.  

Opportunities for development in space are numerous. Satellites can help developing countries leapfrog in their digital development by obviating the need to build telecoms infrastructure on earth.  Research in the microgravity of space can accelerate the development of next generation materials in many fields, including medicine (eg 3D bioprinting of human organs in space).  Technology to maintain human life on the moon, like water recycling, might help solve terrestrial development challenges like water or energy scarcity or food production. But the disparity between nations that can afford to participate in space activities and those that cannot could exclude poorer nations from the benefits of space resources.

The International DarkSky Association and the Skyglow Project work against light pollution worldwide, to keep dark places dark.  This showcases the potential for collective action to protect global public goods that might not be immediately recognizable, such as natural darkness – goods of cultural and scientific significance for current and future humans.