Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Colleagues, Friends

It is my great pleasure to be with you today on behalf of UN Development Programme to discuss the global and regional challenges and prospects of recovery and growth.

These are extraordinary times. We face at the same time a pandemic, a climate emergency, political polarization, continued conflicts, natural disasters and widespread humanitarian needs.

The pandemic not only disrupted the global supply chains and slowed down the world economy, but it has also caused a severe reversal in well-being. The socio-economic impact of COVID-19 has been felt in every corner of the world, by people from all walks of life.

For the first time since we started to measure human development in 1990, the human development index has dropped across the globe. Income, education and longevity indicators have all dropped during the Covid19 crisis; some will rebound, but the effects will linger on for a long time.

Between 119-124 million people were pushed back into extreme poverty, and the equivalent of 255 million full-time jobs were lost since March 2020.

The impact of the pandemic on education, jobs, gender equality is well documented and we don’t have time to go into the details today.

Various data and analyses show that economies that could afford to provide universal social assistance, generous social insurance, and adequate labor market and SME support (in the form of tax deferrals, subsidies and liquidity support) have done so, with remarkable mitigating effects, largely neutralizing income losses, job losses and poverty increases.

However, most developing economies have not been able to afford full mitigation.

The IMF policy tracker shows that the global amount of support reached $17.3 trillion in July 2021, 11.2 trillion of which was fiscal support and 6.1 trillion of which was liquidity and guarantees.  But,

While advanced economies managed 17.3% of GDP in fiscal support and 11.4% of GDP in liquidity and guarantees, the equivalent figures for emerging markets is 4.1% and 2.6% of GDP respectively; and for low income countries, it’s 2% and 0.2% of GDP.

On emergency social protection measures -- while high-income countries have allocated an average of $545 in social assistance, low- and middle-income countries have spent a per capita average of just $26 in social assistance; among low-income countries only, the amounts of social assistance per capita are as low as $4.

We have evidence of what has worked.  We now need to expand these measures.

The IMF’s July forecast of 6 percent for global economic growth in 2021 is unchanged from the previous outlooks, but the composition has changed. Growth prospects for advanced economies this year improved by 0.5 percentage point, but this is offset exactly by a downward revision for emerging market and developing economies driven by a significant downgrade for emerging Asia. For 2022, we project the same trend.

The Western Balkans region as a whole has withstood the impact of the pandemic relatively well, with GDP contracting by just 3.2 percent in 2020. All economies have adopted expansionary fiscal policies with various support packages aimed at mitigating the impact of the pandemic. GDP growth in the region is expected to be 5.1 per cent in 2021, moderating to 3.8 per cent in 2022.

To move forward, we must address vaccine equity. 

To date, more than 5.3 billion shots have been administered – at an average of 69 per 100 people -- but dozens of poor countries remain below 5 shots per 100 people. There are countries that will only reach 70% vaccine coverage by 2023 –threatening global economic recovery. Vaccine equity is our number one priority to get things back on track.

This is  also a moment to consider how we recover from Covid and how we can come out of this crisis by doing things differently. It will take all of us: governments, development partners, including IFIs, private sector, academia, citizens, to work together, and it will require us to adjust our approaches to the new levels of uncertainty and complexity.

Complex issues such as RECOVERY require a comprehensive approach and actions on multiple sectors. It is commendable to see that North Macedonia is pioneering with applying a system transformation approach to the development of the first long-term national development strategy -- using Kate Raworth’s Doughnut economic model in the creation of a “living strategy” with an evolving process that will ensure that the NDS will be as effective in 20 years.

This systems approach will address interconnected vulnerabilities through deep code transformation, by building horizontal and vertical capabilities across the society, guarantying safe and just space for the people of North Macedonia.

I congratulate you, your excellency, Prime Minister, on your commitment to engage in a whole of society approach to drafting the country's National Development Strategy.

On behalf of UNDP, allow me to express my appreciation for trusting us to accompany you in this journey. 

Excellencies, distinguished panelists, and colleagues,

The UN Secretary-General said recently: “We are truly at a crossroads, with consequential choices before us.” Let’s work together to make the choices right, and create the desired sustainable future.

I look forward to hearing from the other speakers and continuing our collaboration.

Thank you for your attention.