PURPOSE

UNDP’s Signals Spotlight highlights some of the signals and trends UNDP sees emerging that we consider will be significant for development in the next 3 to 10 years.  This year, the Spotlight focusses on intergenerational equity (fairness between generations) because of its importance to the Summit of the Future in September 2024.

The Spotlight aims to get the reader thinking about changes on the horizon they might not have noticed, or only seen from certain angles, and to ask what they might mean for development.  This helps reveal the infinite variety of possible futures ahead - and where we might be able to steer change towards the future we want.

METHODOLOGY

The Spotlight includes signals from UNDP’s Future Trends and Signals System, a growing network of 300+ UNDP staff worldwide who continuously scan the horizon for signals of change. From the hundreds of signals noticed over the past year, the UNDP Strategy & Futures Team chose some of the most interesting, then looked for patterns among them. The team held consultations with experts from the International Science Council, the European Commission, African think-tanks and young people to seek their perspectives on what was emerging.
The team chose 16 themes to feature in the Spotlight. The choice of themes, while subjective, depended on three criteria:

• Particularly relevant to intergenerational equity.
• Deserving greater attention given their growing significance for development.
• Suggesting a potentially interesting or important change of direction.

The themes are clustered into three sections: hope for an equitable future, hope for responsible technological progress and hope for resilient and connected communities.

HOPE

It can be hard to be hopeful in an unequal, uncertain and increasingly polarized world. Many young people are frightened3 of the future; even more are worried4 about losing their job and threats to societal stability. To “engage” us, social media plays on our negativity bias5 (the human tendency to pay more attention to negative information than positive) and raises the volume of disagreement6. The pessimistic stance can seem the safer option because people tend to forget7 about gloomy forecasts that don’t come true, whereas they love to trumpet the mistakes of over-optimistic predictions.

Why does it even matter whether or not we feel hopeful? Because our outlook on the future influences the choices8 we make today. People generally pay most attention to the future they consider most likely or plausible, but actually “the most important future is the future the greatest number of people believe the most… the future on which they are basing their decisions and actions.”  That is why we need to encourage hope and belief in positive futures, so that people will make decisions in that mindset - decisions which then help those futures to materialize.

Hope is more than just a pleasant feeling. It can influence actual outcomes. Positive messaging9 around climate change, for example, can inspire more productive action than does fearmongering. 
Hope encompasses skills that can build well-being and resilience10
When people cease to believe in the future, the loss of hope can mean apathy or resignation.  

Cultivating hope is not about adopting a determinedly blithe attitude to the future or denying its challenges. Rather, it is about pragmatic optimism: asking how we can make the most of the opportunities we do have, looking for ways to preserve choice and agency. Even in the most challenging contexts of conflict or crisis, hope is central11 to nurturing people’s sense of purpose and a path out of despair. Vaclav Havel12 wrote, “Hope is not the same as joy that things are going well… but rather an ability to work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed.” 

There are practical ways we can cultivate hope. Involving ordinary people in public policy deliberation can encourage positive thinking13. Empathy, which can be learned14 and transmitted, connects us with the aspirations and fears of others, fostering a shared sense of hope. Tweaking the algorithms15 that dictate our social media feeds could bring other points of view onto our screens. Using more varied data for artificial intelligence (AI) training could strengthen empathy across geographies and cultures. Developing a planetary conscience16 can join us together to cultivate a good quality life for all humans and other beings.

So what gives us hope? Optimists17 who “recognize that the world will only improve if we fight for it.” Students in Lima organizing through social media to make someone happy for a day18.People’s enthusiasm for collaboration in pursuit of the collective good. The idea that hope is teachable and that technology might hold the key to cultivating empathy and stronger human connections. Grassroots innovators19 solving problems in new ways that, if scaled, could help us get to intergenerational equity.

To build a fairer future for all generations, to create positive futures, we have to start with hope.