LocationsMongolia: Just Energy Transition and Human Development Imperatives
December 1, 2024
UNDP's renewable energy project beneficiary
By Yasin Janjua, Economist, UNDP in Mongolia
People and communities should not be passive beneficiaries of development but active agents of change who can engage fully in economic, social and political life, and in building human security – while remaining committed to a healthy environment and careful stewardship of the planet for future generations.
This is the foundation of the Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) which was developed in 1990 by late Dr. Mahbub-ul-Haq to place a larger emphasis on policy discussions about people, about expanding their opportunities and choices, and improving their well-being.
Mongolia’s recently launched National Human Development Paper highlights the challenges faced by the country in energy transition and its impact on human development. Over the past decades, Mongolia’s Human Development Index (HDI) showed steady progress until 2018, but started to decline before pandemic. By 2022, it had recovered only to its 2016 level.
One of the causes for Mongolia’s HDI setback is country’s intensive reliance on fossil fuels that power its economy for electricity, heating, industrial, and export of mining products. Mongolia’s dependence on mining commodities makes its economy vulnerable to global market fluctuations, leading to negative impacts on s national income during global recessions. In the meantime, the country is now among the highest per capita CO2 emitters.
In 2021, Mongolia’s HDI was 0.739 which is below the 0.749 average for the East Asia and Pacific region and lower than the average for the neighbouring Europe and Central Asia region. Currently, Mongolia’s HDI of 0.741 in 2022 places it, at 96 out of 193, in the category of high human development countries.
Source: Human Development Report Office Data Centre
In Ulaanbaatar and other urban centres, the coal-dependent energy systems, consisting of combined heat and power plants (CHPP) and heating stoves used by the people living in ger (yurt) housing, are exacerbating the air pollution. Moreover, Mongolia’s energy infrastructure is aging, inefficient, and heavily subsidized. The current energy choices, heavily reliant on coal, have not only degraded the environment but also caused significant public health risks. In winters, the air in Ulaanbaatar becomes hazardous to breathe due to high concentration of particulate matter.
UNDP’s planetary pressures-adjusted human development index (PHDI), which adjusts the overall HDI for carbon dioxide emissions and material footprint, reveals the environmental cost of the country’s coal-based development model. In 2022, Mongolia’s PHDI was 16.5% lower than its overall HDI, one of the largest adjustment factors across Asia and the Pacific, signaling the unsustainable trajectory of its growth.
In 2022, Mongolia’s HDI loss, as measured by PHDI was 16 percent, which is the highest discount among neighbouring countries.
With large environmental impacts and health risks, dependence on fossil fuels is providing costly and limited economic benefits. For instance, the mining sector, which accounted for 28% of the country’s gross value added in 2023, employed hardly 5% of the labour force, highlighting the country’s lack of economic diversification and untapped potentials in other sectors. Thus, the country’s high per capita CO2 emissions and heavy reliance on coal, demands a shift towards renewable energy to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Air pollution in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Given Mongolia’s abundant renewable energy resources and the decreasing costs of renewable technologies globally, the country is well-positioned to benefit from increasing its clean energy mix. Cleaner energy alternatives, particularly solar-powered heating solutions and heat pumps for ger areas, can significantly reduce air pollution and improve public health.
An energy transition will, however, affect the entire economy, particularly those industries and individuals that are deeply entrenched in the fossil fuel sector. It could have a disproportionate impact on different groups, as some jobs will be lost and investments in brown energy sector would be sunk. Therefore, the transition should be just and fair and leave no one behind. It must go beyond environmental goals to align with broader human development objectives, such as sustainable economic growth, social inclusion, energy security, and leveraging partnerships for global energy financing policy and climate mitigation efforts announced at COP29.
Investment in STEM education, skills development, and the reskilling of displaced workers will further ease the transition. Off-grid renewable energy solutions can enhance agricultural productivity and food security for rural farmers and herders; and increase food and energy independence and security for the country. Additionally, the clean energy sector presents new opportunities for economic diversification, creating jobs, particularly for women and youth. Inclusive policies must ensure that vulnerable groups, including internal migrants and herders, benefit from this transition.
A just energy transition (JET) thus, offers an opportunity for an equitable and smooth transition from brown to clean energy, enhances resilience against crises, fosters livelihoods and entrepreneurship, and creates decent employment opportunities across the economy (UNDP, 2024). A JET, would have a positive impact on all and would strengthen human development, setting Mongolia on a low carbon emissions path thus, accelerating progress towards Sustainable Development Goals and achieving NetZero by 2050.
To ensure an efficient and equitable energy transition, Mongolia will need comprehensive regulatory reforms, national and local energy transition strategies, blended climate finance for JET, investment plans for energy efficiency and renewable energy, and targeted training programs for reskilling its labour force that would be displaced from sectors impacted by transition. This will position the country to benefit from foreign investment and international cooperation.