Looking Around

The term “ocean justice” sits at the crossroads of ocean stewardship, social inclusion, and equity. Historically, disadvantaged communities, especially low-lying coastal populations and low-income households, have been the first and worst hit by climate change, sea level rise, and ocean degradation. Ocean justice aims to bring social inclusion and fairness at the heart of ocean governance, by asking: Who bears the brunt of rising seas, overfishing, and pollution? Who benefits the most from ocean resources use?  

This approach aims to ensure that historically marginalised communities, women, elders and youth, Indigenous peoples and coastal populations, are not disproportionately burdened or excluded from opportunities. As the blue economy emerges as the new frontier of economic development in the Pacific, justice is essential to guarantee fair distribution of the costs and benefits of new ocean-based developments. Signals from across the region show growing attention to equity in ocean governance. 

With some of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones in the world, Pacific Island states are leveraging legal frameworks to advance ocean justice. The 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent emphasises the role of traditional knowledge and community-driven governance in sustaining ocean ecosystems. laying the foundations for protecting and recognizing the Pacific’s stewardship of the environment and ocean, and strengthening Pacific’s maritime security. From a financial angle, the establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility also indicates progress in prioritising Pacific-led support to strengthening climate and disaster resilience, the fund aiming to improve access to appropriate finance for many Pacific Island Countries. As a key milestone towards its mobilisation, in March 2025, the Facility received a US$3 million capitalisation contribution from Japan. 

Recent negotiations at the 2025 Honiara Summit, co-organised by the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the Pacific Community (SPC), and the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for the Ocean, resulted in a unified call to urgently tackle overfishing. The summit emphasised stronger regional cooperation, integration of scientific innovations, and strengthened partnerships to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 14.4 on illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. 

The contentious issue of deep sea-bed mining also remains at the forefront of the ocean justice debate. Countries like Fiji, Palau, and Samoa continue to push for a moratorium (or precautionary pause) at the International Seabed Authority, due to environmental sustainability, fish stocks’ impacts, and intergenerational justice concerns. This includes an area of 4.5 million square kilometres of international waters in the central Pacific, rich in polymetallic nodules. In February 2025, leaders from 18 Pacific nations gathered in Fiji for a High-level Talanoa on Deep Sea Minerals, organised by the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, to discuss national and regional approaches to deep-sea mining, balancing economic opportunities with environmental and cultural stewardship. 

In addition, nuclear waste remains a major pollutant, threatening intergenerational health and security in Pacific waters. Pacific Island leaders, together with civil society organiations and women leaders, continue to work to mitigate its dumping and advocate for nuclear legacy justice and action. Yet, weak regulations and enforcement, coupled with grey areas in international maritime law and insurance policies pose severe bottlenecks to action on marine pollution, burdening local authorities with the costs of clean-up. This is also evident in the shipping sector, with an unknown number of abandoned hulks in the region, leaving places like Suva Harbour in Fiji resembling a ship graveyard of ghost fishing fleets. 

Another intergenerational and transboundary concern gaining traction in the region is (micro)plastic pollution. The latest research reveals that microplastics are prevalent even in the most remote parts of the Pacific Ocean, including in the deep-sea. In August 2024, a first-of-its-kind Plastic Dialogue took place in Funafuti, Tuvalu, gathering all Pacific leaders. A positive development in climate litigation efforts to address ocean pollution in the region was the recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) Advisory Opinion on Climate Change and Human Rights, requested by Pacific states in 2023, signaling a stronger legal argument to link climate and ocean justice to hold polluters accountable for climate-related damages, and ocean degradation.

Looking Across

Multiple examples exist of how the international community and ocean states worldwide are making strides in advocating for fairer and more inclusive ways of relating to the ocean and the impacts of its degradation, though emerging legal, financial, technological and governance mechanisms. 

In 2024, following a request by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea issued an unanimous advisory opinion on country-level obligations to protect and preserve the world's oceans from climate change impacts, such as ocean warming, sea level rise and ocean acidification. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions absorbed by the oceans were officially declared as marine pollution, and therefore, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and other relevant international legal obligations under the Paris Agreement, States are required to take 'all necessary measures', to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, signaling strong climate accountability from small island states. 

Meanwhile, the ratification and implementation of the UN High Seas Treaty (2023) emerges as well as a key tool to ensure that biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction frameworks incorporate equity principles that reflect traditional values and intergenerational justice over ocean spaces. At a national level, countries like Canada and New Zealand are implementing co-governance models to formalize Indigenous leadership in marine protected areas management and fisheries regulation, to guarantee inclusive and equative decision-making processes.  

In terms of financing, Caribbean nations, including Belize and Bahamas, are also leading advocacy efforts for debt-for-nature swaps and exploring historical reparations or debt forgiveness mechanisms for marine resource extraction, seeking alternatives to traditional financing mechanisms and advocating for a fairer and more distributive international climate finance systems. 

Finally, technological innovations in satellite-based vessel tracking, digital and AI tools for marine monitoring and enforcement are being tested around the globe, with examples in the US, New Zealand, the European Union and the Pacific, to monitor global ship movements, helping to combat IUU fishing, and maritime crime. Pilots are emerging as well to integrate marine citizen science as way to increase ownership and empowerment of coastal communities as custodians of their maritime environment. 

Looking Ahead

Ocean justice is emerging as a critical framework for addressing inequalities in ocean governance, climate action, and marine resource management. The concept emphasises the need for inclusive and participatory decision-making processes in ocean-related activities, recognising social, economic and cultural uses that coastal communities have with the marine environment. Several key developments could shape the future trajectory of ocean justice in the Pacific. 

The Blue Economy’s great potential continues to be explored, as the Pacific region holds significant potential. Sustainable aquaculture rises as a promising sector to boost economic growth, encompassing oysters, giant clams and prawn farms. Other emerging frontiers of ocean development such as offshore renewable energy, bioprospecting, and blue carbon are emerging as innovative solutions to generate sustainable incomes and build resilience of coastal communities. Efforts should be made in reinforcing an equal distribution of gains and losses brought by new ocean developments, while ensuring equal participation in decision-making and ocean management process of all relevant stakeholders.   

The attention is now placed on the 3rd United Nations Ocean Conference that will take place in France on June 2025, opening the door to redefine global commitments on ocean governance, blue finance, and marine conservation, with a particular focus on strengthening the implementation of SDG 14, addressing ocean-based climate action, and ensuring equity in ocean resource use and management. 

Potential impact on development: Moderate at present, with the likelihood of it becoming Very High if not addressed in the short to medium term.

What is horizon scanning? 

Horizon scanning identifies trends and weak signals of potentially significant change, and finds emerging threats and opportunities while there is still time to act on them. It is a way to surf an increasingly volatile change ecosystem rather than being wiped out by it. Scans pose the questions: What are we not talking about that we should be? And what topics are we already talking about that are developing further implications that we have not yet discussed? 

Why is UNDP Pacific investing in horizon scanning? 

The accelerated pace of development and increasing volatility of change has meant that development practitioners need to continuously scan to identify emerging threats and opportunities to inform institutional decision-making processes. UNDP’s scanner squad is a critical investment to stay ahead of change. 

This work has been produced by the Policy, Innovation, Communications and Partnerships team with contributions by Ana Lucia Londono, Zainab Kakal and Nicholas Turner. It serves as part of a regular series looking at key signals from across the Pacific region.