Locations
Identifying weak signals and trends for development
Storyblocks (UNDP license)
Looking Around
The year 2024 has been declared by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as the warmest year in the world and in the Western Pacific. There is no question that Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are already at the frontlines on climate change, increasingly experiencing record temperatures and the impacts of extreme weather events. Yet, the region’s warmer climate is not only accompanied by the prevalence of severe droughts, rising sea levels, unprecedented marine heatwaves and more intense tropical cyclones, impacting both ecosystems and livelihoods, but it is also felt with a gradually heated political and socioeconomic context. Numerous signals are arising that stress the imminent rise in Pacific temperatures and the growing correlation between climate-related changes and increasing instability and inequality across the region.
A report from the WMO indicated that the South-West Pacific region has been experiencing significantly higher temperatures compared to recent years, with average temperatures increasing by 0.1°C per decade since the 1950’s. Kiribati, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, and the Federated States of Micronesia recorded the highest temperature increases among the Western Pacific. Fiji’s capital, Suva, has been experiencing extreme heat, with more than a 1°C increase above the 1961-2010 average, while Fiji’s ocean waters are currently the hottest they have been in the past 653 years. In 2023, Vanuatu was hit by three severe tropical cyclones (Judy, Kevin and Lola), causing widespread damage and highlighting the growing intensity of tropical cyclones in the Pacific due to warming oceans. The Cook Islands is experiencing historical highs in ocean temperatures, with 3-4°C above average, and temperatures around the Great Barrier Reef are now the highest recorded in 400 years, threatening coral ecosystems and fisheries vital to Pacific livelihoods and food security.
The latent risks of climate change to political stability, human security and socioeconomic wellbeing, make it an existential threat to PICs. Consequences are already tangible in water and food security, with locals for instance reporting the lowest yellowfin tuna catch of the season, as fish already “cooking in Fijian waters”, or risking sugar cane production. Rising sea levels are also driving climate-driven relocation processes, threatening to undermine the social fabric and economic stability of island communities, with a disproportionate impact on youth and especially girls, exacerbating child protection risks and vulnerability to violence. Such pressures further intersect with prevalent crises linked to unemployment, crime, drug abuse, mental health, and informal settlements, impacting poverty reduction efforts, social protection systems and livelihoods.
Photo: UNDP
Looking Across
With a relentless increase in global average temperatures in the last decade, some have declared the beginning of a “Global Boiling Era”. Globally, 2024 experienced alarming record temperatures, with a global average beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and global sea surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C, the highest level ever recorded. The UN Report “Surging Seas in a warming word” warns of rising sea surface temperatures, three times faster than the global average since 1980, driving marine heatwaves and coastal flooding with serious threats to coastal communities and marine ecosystems. Yet, the geographical distribution of these temperature spikes is uneven around the globe, with specific regions bearing the burden of this escalating climate emergency known as “climate danger zones.” More than half of the world’s coral is experiencing bleaching, with key hot spots in the Great Barrier Reef, the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
As a response to escalating temperatures, local governments around the globe are appointing Chief Heat Officers (CHOs) to address the escalating challenges posed by heatwaves, through heat mitigation strategies and public awareness. Recent examples include women in four continents being appointed to as CHO, with Miami (US) appointing the world's first CHO. Similarly, cities like Athens (Greece), Melbourne (Australia), Dhaka North (Bangladesh), and Freetown (Sierra Leone) have also ventured to appoint CHOs to increase green spaces and tackle urban heat challenges through cooling initiatives. All this reflects a growing recognition of the need for dedicated leadership to address urban heat challenges, and more broadly, female leadership in climate action.
Yet, as the world remains on track for warming exceeding 3˚C, numerous tension points are intensifying. Migration pressures due to climate displacement have increased and according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM), climate change could displace between 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050. After the debacle of COP29, doubts are emerging about the effectiveness of multi-lateral climate governance in negotiating solutions to global warming. Alongside, most vulnerable countries to climate change have urged to rethink climate finance, as it fails to adequately address their unique needs, often exacerbating debt burdens rather than providing accessible, equitable, and grant-based support. Currently, 72 percent of climate finance provided to PICs comes mainly in the form of loans, further burdening already fragile economies.
Photo: UNDP
Looking Ahead
We are in uncharted waters where the difference between 1.5 degrees and 3 degrees will mean a future in which island communities thrive or are forced to relocate. The question remains not how hot it will be in 2025, but rather how can PICs navigate this new era of volatility and rising temperatures with unity and leadership, anchored in traditional Pacific environmental knowledge and resilience.
As rising temperatures threaten to transform the social, political, cultural and economic fabric of Pacific societies, COP30 offers the possibility to PICs to bundle together and call for stronger climate action to prevent climate change risks to become unmanageable. For international organizations and donors programming in the Pacific, heat should become front and center in the development agenda.
Innovative and holistic solutions that connect greenhouse emission reduction through carbon capture and renewable energies, reforestation efforts that combine climate-resilient agriculture and sustainable land use practices, and climate-smart urbanism that mitigates the effects rising sea temperatures and extreme weather events offer some concrete strategies to for the Pacific to lead the way forward. Learn more about heat as part of the Planetary Health theme at the Pasifika Futures Forum on 13-15 May 2025 in Suva, Fiji.
Potential Impact on Development
High at present, with the likelihood of it becoming Very High if not addressed in the short to medium term.
This work has been produced by the Policy, Innovation, Communications and Partnerships team with contributions by Ana Lucia Londono, Zainab Kakal and Nicholas Turner. It serves as part of a regular series looking at key signals from across the Pacific region.
What is horizon scanning?
Horizon scanning identifies trends and weak signals of potentially significant change, and finds emerging threats and opportunities while there is still time to act on them. It is a way to surf an increasingly volatile change ecosystem rather than being wiped out by it. Scans pose the questions: What are we not talking about that we should be? And what topics are we already talking about that are developing further implications that we have not yet discussed?
Why is UNDP Pacific investing in horizon scanning?
The accelerated pace of development and increasing volatility of change has meant that development practitioners need to continuously scan to identify emerging threats and opportunities to inform institutional decision-making processes. UNDP’s scanner squad is a critical investment to stay ahead of change.
