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UNDP Serbia at the Kopaonik Business Forum (KBF) 2025
Kopaonik, March 3, 2025 - How will demographic developments affect the availability of labour in Serbia, especially at regional and local level, how can institutions and the private sector work together to find solutions to the changes in the labour force structure, what potential do circular migration and foreign workers hold, and what innovations in state policy and measures are needed for successful recruitment in the next 10 to 20 years? These were the questions addressed by the panelists at the Kopaonik Business Forum, during the panel organised by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the National Employment Service of Serbia.
According to the World Bank, Serbia ranks thirteenth in the world in terms of population decline. Due to low birth rates, an ageing population and emigration, the number of young people entering the labour market is decreasing, while the number of pensioners is growing faster than their jobs can be replaced. In addition, the emigration of highly qualified workers is further exacerbating the problem of labour shortages in key industries.
The latest UNDP labour market study in Serbia predicts that the demand for labour will increase from 125,000 in 2024 to almost 144,000 in 2026, with the greatest demand in the manufacturing and IT sectors, while demand remains high in the wholesale and retail sectors. The problem lies not only in the numbers, but also in the discrepancy between supply and demand on the labour market. The younger generation is increasingly opting for high-tech and digital professions, while interest in traditional manufacturing and industrial jobs is declining, making it even more difficult to fill these positions.
“Trends in the labour market are developing faster than ever before, and if we only focus on current demand, we will always be one step behind. In recent years, for example, there has been a huge demand for IT programmers, only for this sector to be turned upside down within a year with the advent of artificial intelligence”, explained Yakup Beris, UNDP Serbia Resident Representative, in his opening speech at the panel.
“To truly adapt to rapid changes, it is important to ensure real-time tracking of available labour force. For this reason, we are planning to work with the UNDP to develop an advanced labour market analysis system. This system will provide ongoing insights into labour market trends, new skills requirements and sector-specific labour dynamics not only at national but also at local level”, stated Milan Bosnić, Director of the National Employment Service of Serbia.
In his speech on the situation at the local level, Yakup Beris emphasised that smaller towns and municipalities are particularly affected by labour shortages, as almost 40% of towns and municipalities in Serbia have lost a third of their population in the last three decades. These areas are caught in a vicious circle of emigration and economic stagnation: the loss of human capital leads to further emigration, declining birth rates and unfavourable labour market conditions, especially for young people. This trend not only threatens individual municipalities, but also the economic and social stability of entire regions. Apart from Niš, for example, all other municipalities in southern and eastern Serbia are suffering from a significant decline in population and weak economic activity.
“To turn medium-sized cities into places where people want to stay, work and build a future, we are developing a customised population policy in collaboration with the relevant ministry. Our initiative includes measures that support young people, families and businesses, such as the creation of family-friendly urban spaces and solutions for a better work-life balance”, added Beris.
The panellists included Marjana Davidović, Country Manager for the Southern Adriatic Region at Nestlé, Uroš Živković, Programme Director of Returning Point, and Vladimir Nikitović, Head of the Centre for Demographic Research at the National Institute of Social Sciences.
The panellists agreed that tackling the problems of labour shortages, changes in the labour market and regional differences requires fresh ideas, adaptable policies and the determined testing of new solutions. These include adapting education and skills development to the changing demands of the labour market, developing economic policies that support small and medium-sized enterprises to innovate and attract investment in high-skilled, technology-driven industries, and better understanding migration and the role of foreign workers to ensure that their participation in the labour market contributes to long-term, sustainable development.
