Provocations > Predictions: Exploring Futures of Green Transition in Uzbekistan

Applying Foresight for Exploring Futures of Green Transition in Uzbekistan (WHATs)

December 14, 2023

Author

Muzaffar Tilavov

Head of Exploration, Accelerator Lab, Uzbekistan

Last year in UNDP Uzbekistan, we started a Futures and Foresight exercise on Green Transition in Uzbekistan guided by the increasing importance of the topic for the country as well as the necessity to apply speculative evidence about the future uncertainty to fill in the blank spaces not filled by quantitative research and evidence.

We produced a range of outputs, including a signals database, drivers, narrative scenarios, and several critical ideas for policymaking and programming. The exercise was a participatory process involving UNDP program staff and a wider group of counterparts from various government ministries, agencies, and non-government organizations.

This blog tells about this work's WHATs. We present an overview of the outcomes. Also, please check out our blog on HOWs of the process, which shares our experience applying Foresight as a programming and policy-making tool.

You can download the Future of Green Transition in Uzbekistan Report and Drivers’ Deck at the UNDP Uzbekistan website.

“We need to start imagining the future, or it will get imagined for us, and the ways that it has been imagined thus far don't seem very attractive.”

— Mohsin Hamid

Foresight is not about predicting the future. It is more about the present than the future. By considering various signals we observe TODAY, we speculate on alternative and conflicting scenarios of how things may unfold TOMORROW. And again, we don’t do this to make PREDICTIONS but to generate PROVOCATIONS that help us to prepare for unknowns that are to come.

Our topic of interest in this foresight study was the future of Green Transition in Uzbekistan. The Central Asian region is particularly vulnerable to the issues of climate change and environmental degradation. The region is already experiencing a heavy toll from climate issues. Perspectives of issues like increasing water scarcity, desertification, and extreme temperatures will layer on existing or potential geopolitical, political, social, and economic challenges and ambitions.

Uzbekistan's urgent development needs and growth aspirations must factor in environmental challenges. For Uzbekistan, economic transition means a green transition.

Domains of interest

The realm of issues we consider is very intersectional. Thus, our work spans across various domains.

Our collective mapping sessions highlighted the following seven domain areas:

Environment
Energy, natural resources, and climate
Financial and economic factors
Regulatory and legislative frameworks
Political and governance aspects, the rule of law
Technological and infrastructure aspects
Social and behavioral aspects

The sub-domains included 62 issue areas we considered in our exercise, covering a wide spectrum of issues from behavioral changes to technical regulations, industrial immaturity to green tech innovations, etc.

On the horizon

In a horizon scanning process under the exercise, we analyzed 454 “weak” (emerging and novel relative to the context) and “strong” (well-evidenced, established trends) signals to identify the forces that may shape the future.

The signals, for example, laid out questions about the influence of potential demographic shift in China, implications of the increasing energy regulation measures in the Central Asian countries, awareness of gender inclusion in green industries, the interdependence of economic and political reforms, and many more.

In addition, to better understand the local context, we interviewed local experts (government, development practitioners, civil society, entrepreneurs, and subject experts). Insights from the interviews confirmed or added dimensions to signals' information.

The highlight of some insights from the interviews:

The importance of changing the mindsets of individuals as well as collectively of the government structures as a success prerequisite of any policies
The role of mandatory and voluntary standards and regulations in the industry
The need to prepare the infrastructure (especially the power grids) for new realities of green transformation
Human resources for green professions
Adaptation strategies vs De-carbonization
Opportunities for the private sector

Gravity forces of change

Further, based on the signals database, we identified drivers of change - gravity forces that explain the amplitude and motion of the signals. The sensemaking of signals includes looking for patterns, similarities, and differences and understanding their dynamics.

It allowed us to formulate our Drivers of Change and turn them into a drivers’ card deck with a brief description and an exploratory question. We categorized these drivers into three distinctive categories applying different time lenses through the Futures Triangle method.

Weight of the past:

What is holding us back or getting in our way?

What are the barriers to change?

What are the deep structures that resist change?

This group of drivers highlights forces concerning (neo) colonial legacies and inherited inefficient practices. We put questions like how to overcome negative consequences and thwart them. The drivers also point out opportunities and challenges of new regional economic cooperation and trade initiatives. On the other hand, a spectrum of inherent cultural models can have an overall positive or negative impact. Challenges of resisting unethical and unequal practices like corruption and nepotism loom over.

Push of the present:

What drivers of change are pushing us towards particular futures?

What quantitative drivers of change are changing the future?

What is happening now? What is popular now?

The signals here imply the drivers concerning current complex and dynamic geopolitical realities, the challenges of climate change externalities, and nature degradation. It is the context in which there are many aspects where Uzbekistan has little influence and is mainly left to adapt. However, there are also opportunities to take advantage of. If managed prudently, domestic talent supply, sustainable resource management, digitalization, and access to global financial markets may propel the country's green transformation.

Pull of the future:

What drivers of change are pulling us towards particular futures?

What are the compelling images of the future, those we can’t overlook?

Are there competing images of the future?

The drivers also identify forces that may shape our futures. Advancement and adoption of new technologies are strong factors that, among others, may enable innovations in circular economy and cost-effective renewables. National environmental targets (e.g., carbon reduction) will shape the guiding frameworks for green transition. Uzbekistan will continue to benefit from the demographic dividend, and there is a moment to convert it into a distinctive advantage, nurturing necessary skills and making the labor market more inclusive, covering more women. Restructuring the economy will become a more pressing necessity, making tasks like changing consumer patterns or incentivizing low-carbon service sectors like tourism a part of green development plans.

Four scenarios for the future

Using the drivers and insights from the interviews, we created four scenarios based on preset scenario archetypes (Baseline, Collapse, New Equilibrium, and Transformation). The work yielded four distinct pathways. Brief synopses are as follows.

Scenario 1: Uzbekistan is the place for investors

In 2030, Uzbekistan will be greener and more attractive to investors, but this has not always been true. In the early 2020s, Uzbekistan started to feel the effects of conflicts in the broader region and other external pressures. This led the country to rethink its development strategy. Uzbekistan began to turn to practical usage of internal resources, importing R&D, and trade diversification. Development strategies also emphasized private sector development and privatization. This economic mobilization created an appetite for more investments and subsequent significant reforms.

Scenario 2: Greed Hub or Green Hub

Uzbekistan started to feel the effects of overconsumption and resource waste. They were exacerbated by the lack of development in the circular economy. The growth of green tech could have been more efficient since the fossil fuel industry was subsidized. The energy sector requires investments and modernization. Subsequent liberalization of prices led to inflation and social stress. The abolition of subsidies created opportunities for the development of renewables. Nonetheless, the continued effects of corruption created barriers to inclusive growth and impacted the expansion of green tech.

Scenario 3: From Industrial Development to a Green Economy

In 2030, Uzbekistan became sustainable partially in some sectors. Initially, with fossil resources, there needed to be more incentive to transform into a green economy. There were fragmented approaches, but general awareness and capabilities needed to be improved. However, with external pressures, the country started considering new opportunities. Gradually, renewables became more attractive, and the country could develop some capacities, partly due to foreign investments and loans. Problems like corruption and bureaucracy remained. The external debt also puts pressure on financial maneuverability. Despite the start of changes, the lack of investments, incentives, and R&D affected the speed of progress.

Scenario 4: Reactive vs. Proactive Change

In this scenario, the country transforms in the face of immediate geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges facing the country and the Central Asian region. The challenges urge Central Asian countries to seek deeper integration and cooperation with each other. The region started coordinating global exposure and considered positioning as a single actor. This shift helped streamline efforts and join forces to achieve sustainable and green development.

What are the impact and implications?

Formulating the change drivers and scenario narratives allowed us to consider key corollary impacts and implications.

What are the most significant impacts (near-term) on the development of Uzbekistan’s Green Economy?

For the energy sector: investments in renewables: wind, solar, biogas, micro-hydro power.
For business: investments or subsidies would mean slight growth in capacities and skills, as well as some access to technology.
For the environment: waste management, e-vehicles (individual and public).
For government: green policy framework development.

What are some implications (mid- to long-term) for the development of Uzbekistan’s Green Economy?

Liberalization and privatization in the energy sector and, as a result, the emergence of the energy market.
Perhaps a carbon trading system regional (CA) or inclusion of Uzbekistan in the global market (if it emerges, like what we see in the EU); projects to restore forests; monitoring and verification systems.
For businesses and the general population, there would be a rise in capacities and awareness; the population would start paying for “traditional” energy use and consumption more; the government would gradually stop subsidizing fossil fuels and energy following privatization.
Increased energy efficiency due to access to green energy and technology and sustainable agriculture (as a result, cleaner air, less CO2 and methane emissions, and reduced disasters).

Provocations into Actions

The range of future possibilities and their expected impacts influence our ability to achieve the preferred future paths. Subsequently, we can craft and implement options as policy actions or programme activities to steer the course. In the frame of this exercise, we created some blueprints of illustrative “key ideas” to support the implementation of the green transition strategies.

Brief overviews of key ideas:
A national lifeline tariff system for energy consumption	Youth-led Change Model	Beyond External Experts and “Shiny Tech”	R&D Mission
Limits per user could be introduced depending on the market averages, and based on that, higher-consuming customers will be charged a higher tariff rate. This way, the average of the collected tariff should equal the level at which the energy sector could become self-sustainable with due reinvestments in the infrastructure, including the energy transportation and dissemination systems.	External pressures can drive change, but a deep understanding of an issue at all levels can drive action toward sustainable change from within. Focusing on youth to lead change could be an opportunity for sustainability and societal transformation centered on green economic principles, such as the circular economy, energy efficiency, and others.	Uzbekistan must develop internal capabilities and capacities across critical sectors and industries to seed a sustainable and substantive green transition. Without the right personnel, investment and even “shiny tech” will not make a difference.	Major cross-government research and development (R&D) mission to create “leapfrogs” in key green industries, sectors, and practices, such as hydroelectric power, water system resiliency, and climate-resistant agriculture.

These examples are only a start for developing policy options. Collective intelligence sessions with even more diverse stakeholders allow for designing more optimal policies and aligning them with green transition strategies.

There is already an outline of the next tasks. We are considering continuing our work in advancing the integration of the approach to the decision-making and programming cycles of UNDP and our partners.

Muzaffar Tilavov is Head of Exploration at UNDP Uzbekistan Accelerator Lab. You can reach him by email: muzaffar.tilavov@undp.org or via Twitter: @mtilavov