The impact of climate change on water resources is of critical importance for territories with an extreme continental climate, and for countries where a significant share of water consumption is linked with agricultural development.
The focus of this study is eight hydro-economic basins located in Kazakhstan. The assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources included a selection of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project’s (ISIMIP) climate projections.
Temperature increase affects the melting of glaciers, which leads to an increase of flow in mountain rivers until the mid-century, and to its reduction by the end of the century as a result of the depletion of mountain glaciers. Thus, according to the results of modeling by two scenarios: ssp 126 and ssp 370, by the end of the century, flow reduction is expected in all hydro-economic  basins, except Balkhash-Alakol.
Moreover, according to projections, water consumption is expected to increase as a result of the growing area of irrigated agriculture from 1.8 mln ha to 3 mln ha by 2030, while at the same time water consumption per 1 ha will also increase due to the growth of the average annual temperature.

Prepared by Zhanna Babagalieva
National expert on projecting the impact of climate change on water resources in Kazakhstan until 2100.