OVERVIEW

By 2030, climate-driven poverty could affect an additional 130 million people, exacerbating issues like food and water scarcity, energy access, economic instability and political unrest. By 2050, over three-quarters of the global population may face severe water stress, while up to 158 million women could be pushed into extreme poverty by increasing global temperatures. The shift towards renewable energy could heighten geopolitical tensions through soaring demands for critical minerals, expected to quadruple by 2040, and disrupt fragile economies dependent on fossil fuels through “traumatic” decarbonization. The growing demand of AI for energy and water may provoke new conflicts, while its use in conflict and cyber warfare will change how wars are fought.

SIGNALS

Wars and conflict have often been driven by competition for natural resources. UNEP suggests that 40% of all intrastate conflicts have been linked to natural resources in the last 60 years, a link that doubles the risk of early relapse into conflict. Climate change is making this worse. Prolonged drought and seasonal flooding in the Horn of Africa, often simultaneously with conflict, led to record internal displacements in 2022. Climate-induced pressures are already causing friction between herders and farmers. Drought-induced migration could increase by up to 200% by 2050. Such pressures may spark new conflicts over scarce resources like land and water on which lives depend. 
The green transition itself affects the changing picture of conflict. The rapid, unplanned decarbonisation of fragile oil-producing countries could spark political crisis - “traumatic decarbonisation” – by undermining peace and governance. There is growing competition for critical minerals needed for green tech and electric vehicles. Meeting the Paris Agreement is expected to quadruple demand by 2040, while achieving net-zero would mean a sixfold increase by 2050. As well as the geopolitical implications of this intense competition, human rights and the environment are at stake in countries where mining is weakly governed and local communities see little of its rewards.

AI is already recognized as an unpredictable dimension of future conflict. Advanced AI and AGI (artificial general intelligence) “could destabilize global security in ways reminiscent of the introduction of nuclear weapons.” The UN Security Council discussed for the first time in July 2023 the impact of AI on international peace and security. AI-guided weaponry is already in use; AI will make cyber- and information warfare even more sophisticated.

Finally, the appetite of AI for energy and water brings us back to fights over scarce resources. AI data centres that need huge amounts of water for cooling are competing with farmers and communities for water in drought-stricken South America. Digital services’ growing demand for water means that by 2030 the average European internet user will consume 3 liters of water a day - more than they drink. Global energy demand from data centres could double by 2026, as generative AI spreads widely (a ChatGPT query uses some 10 times more electricity than a Google search). Even though AI can help predict supply and demand and make data centres more efficient, surging energy demand will be a particular challenge for countries with inadequate energy supplies or distribution.

SO WHAT FOR DEVELOPMENT?

In 2022, 75% of people believed there was a real threat of nuclear, chemical or biological attack within the next year. The Doomsday Clock is at 90 seconds to midnight for the second year in a row, reflecting the unprecedented level of danger humanity faces. While nuclear risk remains significant, other dangers posed by climate change, biological threats and disruptive technologies like generative AI are becoming more prominent. This might partly explain why the “doomsday prepping” market is projected to grow to $2.5 billion by 2030.

These interconnected risks pose highly complex challenges, making it even harder for policymakers to take long-term considerations into account. In times of crisis, decision frameworks can help policymakers – even under time pressure - to take into account the socio-ecological impact their decisions may have decades later.

Climate change and environmental degradation act as threat multipliers, increasing displacement caused by natural disasters and conflicts over resources. Ironically, mining critical minerals essential to address climate change can also harm the environment, strain water resources, and violate human rights. But if managed fairly and sustainably, mining can uplift livelihoods, including for future generations.

Investments in sustainable development can help break the cycle of fragility and build stability by addressing the drivers of conflict, including environmental degradation. In Yemen, communities are finding common ground over water; in Morocco, a start-up is growing crops in the desert. Indonesia and Malaysia have cut deforestation by more than half in recent years; and from Brazil, the UAE to India, billions of trees are being planted. Meanwhile, Colombia and Costa Rica are using AI and satellites to track and respond rapidly to deforestation threats and determine a forest’s carbon content.