Rakhine is on the verge of an unprecedented disaster due to a combination of interlinked issues. Restrictions on goods entering Rakhine, both internationally and domestically, have led to a severe lack of income, hyperinflation, and significantly reduced domestic food production. Essential services and a social safety net are almost non-existent, leaving an already vulnerable population at risk of collapse in the coming months.

This report presents analysis based on data collected by UNDP in 2023 and 2024, through direct data collection, stakeholder interviews, and surveys. It shows that Rakhine’s economy has nearly stopped functioning. Critical sectors such as trade, agriculture, and construction are at a standstill. Export-oriented, agro-based livelihoods are disappearing as markets become inaccessible due to blockades. The construction sector, a major employer, is shutting down because imports of cement have stopped, causing prices to skyrocket.

Rakhine faces the imminent threat of acute famine. Predictions indicate that by March-April 2025, domestic food production will only cover 20% of the population’s needs. Internal rice production is declining due to a lack of seeds, fertilizers, severe weather, and a rise in internally displaced people who can no longer farm. Combined with the near-total halt of trade, over 2 million people are at risk of starvation.