The war in Ukraine has created a multifaceted humanitarian emergency with profound impact on security, development and significant socioeconomic challenges for neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The complex nature of the crisis, with its compounded effects of the unprecedented forced displacement in Europe since World War II and the emerging changes to migration patterns, has threatened progress in a number of development objectives, including poverty eradication; addressing inequalities; improving social protection systems; accelerating economic recovery from COVID-19; and reversing environmental degradation. The crisis has also prevented further investments in climate action hampering the opportunities for just transition in the region.

Against this background, the Joint Analysis on the Socio-Economic Impacts of the War in Ukraine on Host Communities and Emerging Migration and Displacement Patterns is a baseline study that is the result of the collaborative efforts of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in the framework of the Issue-Based Coalition of Large Movements of People, Displacement and Resilience.

First, this study brings new knowledge on the potential impact of newly arriving refugees from Ukraine on host communities; secondly, it sets a factual baseline of how the international sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation have shifted the migration and mobility patterns in the region; and, lastly, it attempts to overcome the implicit difficulties of capturing the flows of Russian individuals escaping ongoing social and political developments and the partial mobilization calls, and thus fill information gaps in assessing the effects on local development in affected countries. More specifically, the study examines the socio-economic impacts of the displacement on host communities in countries where the magnitude of refugee arrivals is considerable relative to the size of their population, and the subsequent migration and development patterns emerging as a consequence of the war in countries where the magnitude of remittances flows from the Russian Federation is considerable relative to the size of the receiving economies. The geographical scope of the study encompasses countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and the period covered is from February to December 2022.