How does climate change impact agriculture?

March 17, 2025

Whether in the form of seasonal irregularity, flooding, drought, or natural disasters with increased intensity and frequency, climate change continues to disrupt harvest plans and crop yields, resulting in unexpectedly low profit margins for farmers. With its direct impact on agriculture and vice versa, climate change is inextricably linked to the agricultural sector.

Infographic illustrating climate change impacts on global crop yield, featuring icons and text.

Infographic illustrating global food security impacts due to climate change, with statistics on crop price increases.

Infographic showing a world map highlighting regions affected by climate change on food systems.

Likewise, the agricultural sector contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the major cause of climate change. From 2000 - 2018, Thailand’s total GHG emissions rose from 245,899.56 GgCO2eq to 372,648.77 GgCO2eq (Gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent), with an average annual increase of 2.34%. The country’s major contributor to GHG emissions is the energy sector (65.89%), followed by the agricultural sector (17.86%). Agriculture falls into a position where it shapes as much as it is shaped by climate change.

Infographic detailing the relationship between climate change and agriculture in Thailand.

Now Thailand’s climate has veered off its original course, and this change is reflected in various natural phenomena. From 2011 - 2021, the country’s temperature rose by an average of 0.09°C each year. Rainfall also experienced intense variability. 2019 was the year Thailand’s annual average rainfall hit its lowest point, whereas 2017 brought the heaviest annual rainfall ever recorded since local precipitation records began in 1951. Other forms of climate erratic behavior include:

Increase in the number of days above 35°C, from 1.9 days in 1950 to 49.43 days in 2020
Continuous decline in consecutive wet days
Increased variability in maximum daily rainfall over 5 days
Steady rise in sea surface temperature

Infographic on climate change impacts on Thai agriculture, with data on temperature and rainfall patterns.

These climate anomalies have far-reaching consequences on crops, livestock, and fisheries. Irregular weather and natural disasters harm crop yields. Livestock’s stress level and reproductive rates as well as the risks of new and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks are contingent on ambient temperature rise. Ocean warming poses harm to marine fish.

Climate change and agriculture are particularly important to Thailand. More than 12 million people in the Thai labour force (30%) work in agriculture. Out of Thailand’s total area of 513,115 square kilometers, over 153,184,527 rai (47%) have been converted into agricultural land. We can see that half of the country and a significant proportion of its population can be strongly affected by climate change.

Infographic detailing the impact of climate change on agriculture, featuring text and icons.

Moving to the concern of bioclimatic variability and its impact on various crops by 2050, crops at risk of climate-induced endangerment include longan, orange, and pineapple. In terms of future damages from crop production loss, para rubber yield could be potentially decreased by 125.64%, followed by 98.22% for longan, 49.36% for durian, 19.07% for lychee, and 17.44% for pineapple. (This information is based on the 2012 projection. Real-life outcomes might differ from estimated numbers.)

Chart showing projections of climate impacts on Thailand's crop yields from 2010 to 2050.

Chart showing five crops prone to reduced productivity and their impact on households by region.

The costs of climate-induced damage to agriculture are exceptionally high. For Thailand, climate-induced cumulative damages in the agricultural sector from 2011/2012 to 2041-2050 are estimated to range from 17,499 to 83,826 million US dollars. The government provides farmers an annual average disaster relief of 8,182 million baht. In 2010 and 2011, the total budget for disaster relief reached a stratospheric height of 21,685 and 33,764 baht respectively.

Infographic detailing climate-induced economic damages to Thailand's agricultural sector from 2008 to 2021.

Agriculture, livestock, and fisheries are all dependent on climate. Agriculture gives Thailand’s primary job market, generates revenue from exports, and ensures the food security of the country and beyond. Climate impacts matter to farmers, consumers, and the public sector. Our eyes should gaze towards the agricultural sector and different pathways to sustainable climate change adaptation that leave no one behind.

Sources:

Climate change and food security: risks and responses (FAO, 2015)
Climate change impacts on crop yields: A review of empirical findings, statistical crop models, and machine learning methods (Hu et.al., 2024)
The State of the Global Climate and implications for food and agriculture (FAO, 2023)
FAO’s Work on Climate Change: United Nations Climate Change Conference 2019 (FAO, 2019)
Climate change and food security: risks and responses (FAO, 2015)
Thailand’s Fourth National Communication (NC4), submitted to UNFCCC,
The 2018 data collected by Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning,
The Climate Change Action Plan for the Agricultural Sector 2023 - 2027 Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (CCAPA)
Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (2022a), cited in the Climate Change Action Plan for the Agricultural Sector 2023 - 2027 Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (CCAPA)
Attavanich (2017,2018), cited in Scaling up Climate Ambition on Land Use and Agriculture through NDCs and NAPs (SCALA) (UNDP & FAO, 2023)
CIAT (2012), cited in the Climate Change Action Plan for the Agricultural Sector 2023 - 2027 Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (CCAPA),
Office of Agricultural Economics (2024a),
Office of Agricultural Economics (2024b)