LocationsForesight in action: a strategic lens for Serbia’s future
December 18, 2024
Predicting the future is a skill we would all like to have. However, in the absence of such talent, we have to devise ways to make sense of crucial developments and our possible actions so we can best allocate our efforts and resources.
This question is a crucial part of the Common Country Analysis process for the United Nations in Serbia as we seek to see how we can best address key development challenges and align our efforts with national development objectives and the SDGs in the next five years. Without a crystal ball, the United Nations Resident Coordinator Office in Serbia and UNDP Serbia Accelerator Lab decided to facilitate an innovative foresight exercise. We involved our colleagues[1] and asked them to focus their expertise on three critical areas: resilience to climate change, population dynamics and human capital, and fostering social cohesion, in order to develop scenarios for the future. Our exercise, both the development and discussion about scenarios, revealed the importance of addressing systemic gaps and leveraging opportunities to secure Serbia's more inclusive and resilient future. It also taught us how to use foresight methodology for the most significant effect and where it makes sense.
Foresight 2030
Whether you are an individual or an organization, the future is not a fixed, immutable path but a landscape that can be shaped and redirected. Every decision we make—whether personal or collective—is fundamentally an act of anticipating and influencing what lies ahead. Consequently, our ability to engage thoughtfully with multiple futures is not just beneficial, but absolutely crucial for individual and organizational growth and success.
"Futures thinking" is a way of considering what's possible more deeply, honestly, and strategically, moving beyond our current perceptions and challenging existing assumptions. This approach can, at times, feel uncomfortable or controversial. "Foresight" refers to the application of specific tools or methods for Futures thinking.
Foresight is especially valuable when uncertainty looms, and complex challenges demand innovative solutions, as it provides a dynamic understanding of a system. Foresight contrasts with forecasting, and most forecasting models look at historical trends and attempt to project them forward with various degrees of sophistication.
Foresight also goes beyond prediction. It recognizes the possibility – even likelihood – of fundamental change in the system itself. It steps out of the present and its constraints to consider various possible futures, consequences, and potential responses. It allows stakeholders to understand their role and prepare for uncertainty by exploring diverse, plausible futures and identifying the key factors and actors that influence them.
In Serbia, a country at the crossroads of transformative opportunities, foresight provided a dynamic framework to:
Understand key drivers shaping the nation’s future
Envision multiple scenarios
Identify actionable steps to achieve the SDGs by 2030
The process
The foresight exercise unfolded in two phases - scenario building and backcasting - engaging a wide range of participants within the UN in Serbia to ensure cross-disciplinary collaboration.
Phase 1: Scenario-building
Our colleagues from 13 UN agencies, who have direct experience with programs in Serbia, mapped political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) drivers that influence Serbia’s development. After defining two key drivers per each of the three topics (Resilience to climate change, Population dynamics and human capital, and Fostering social cohesion), they created four scenarios per topic.
This exercise encouraged participants to think beyond linear predictions, consider the systemic nature of change, and understand possible, plausible futures in Serbia. All participants were enthusiastic about contributing their knowledge and expertise to a collective vision of what Serbia may look like in 2030.
Phase 2: Backcasting
During a UN Country Team retreat, heads of agencies analyzed the gaps between Serbia’s current state and the best-case scenarios, using the scenarios developed with expert input. We decided to focus on the best-case scenarios because we decided to set our aims high.
All participants discussed all three topics as we used the World Café methodology, and they identified critical behaviors, systems, and partnerships required to bridge the gaps between the current situation and our best case for Serbia in 2030. The discussions highlighted the UN’s unique role in supporting Serbia’s transformative journey as a trusted broker, knowledge provider, and regional connector.
Lessons learned: building foresight into the future
The scenarios created during the foresight exercise provided a glimpse into Serbia's potential and desired trajectory to illustrate our findings.
Resilience to climate change | Population dynamics and human capital | Fostering social cohesion |
In the best-case scenario, Serbia is a regional leader in sustainability. Renewable energy drives the economy, nature-based solutions transform urban areas, and circular economy minimizes waste while creating green jobs.
| A thriving workforce defines the best-case future, supported by inclusive policies, lifelong learning opportunities, and a reimagined education system. Digital learning and intergenerational knowledge-sharing prepare citizens for a rapidly evolving global economy. | The best-case scenario sees Serbia as a pluralistic society characterized by trust, inclusivity, and active civic engagement. Local initiatives address territorial disparities, and Serbia strengthens its role as a regional peacebuilder. |
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Aside from providing us with a hopeful vision of the future, the foresight exercise underscored several critical insights for improving strategic planning.
One of the key ones was the need to balance structure with flexibility. While guiding questions provided focus, their open-ended nature allowed for creative exploration, without imposing narrow frameworks. Timing also proved crucial, as sessions held late in the day saw reduced engagement, highlighting the need to align exercises with participant energy levels.
Collaboration was another cornerstone of success. The World Café methodology effectively fostered cross-sectoral engagement, though future exercises could benefit from hybrid models that engage both technical staff and decision-makers from the outset.
Integrating emerging technologies like AI and VR also holds immense potential to revolutionize foresight exercises. AI can generate diverse, nuanced scenarios, while VR immerses participants in envisioned futures, transforming abstract ideas into tangible experiences.
The foresight exercise has provided a valuable input for the UN Country team in Serbia development planning, offering actionable insights and a renewed focus on systemic transformation. Achieving these aspirations will require collective action, sustained collaboration, and innovative thinking.
The UN’s role remains pivotal. By acting as a neutral convener, offering global expertise, and fostering regional cooperation, the UN will support Serbia in navigating the complexities of development and help achieve the SDGs.
As we move forward, this exercise underscores a fundamental truth: the future is not something we predict but it can be something we create together for the benefit of all.
[1]Colleagues from different agencies, funds and programs participated at various stages and in different ways. In the first part of the exercise representatives of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Labor Organization (ILO), International Organization for Migration (IOM), Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Office of the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Serbia (UNRCO), Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN-Women), World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) participated in person, while the representatives of United Nations Program for Human Settlements (UN-Habitat), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) contributed online. During the UNCT retreat representatives of FAO, ILO, IOM, OHCHR, UN-Women, UNDP, UNECE, UNEP, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNICEF, United Nations Office in Belgrade, UNODC, UNOPS, WHO and the Resident Coordinator Office participated in person, while representatives or UNEP and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) participated remotely.
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