A DEVASTATED ECONOMY PERVASIVE POVERTY AND A CHALLENGING ROAD AHEAD TO SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Fourteen years of conflict in Syria have undone nearly four decades of economic, social, and human capital progress, according to a new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) preliminary socio-economic impact assessment. The report issues a stark warning: at current growth rates, Syria’s economy will not regain its pre-conflict GDP level before 2080. Annual economic growth must rise six-fold to shorten recovery to ten years, and an ambitious ten-fold rise would be needed over 15 years to bring the economy to where it would have been without conflict. 

The report estimates that nine out of ten Syrians now live in poverty. The country’s GDP has shrunk to less than half of its value since the start of the conflict in 2011, and unemployment has tripled. One in four Syrians are now jobless, and the deterioration of public infrastructure has significantly intensified the conflict's impact.

The report argues that recovery requires a clear national vision, in-depth reforms, and effective coordination among institutions. It also states that expanding market access is crucial for Syria's economic recovery.

This UNDP assessment is part of a series of assessments and analyses that are currently being prepared by the UN Country Team in Syria to inform early recovery and reconstruction efforts.