LocationsThe Hidden Cost of Our Favorite Valentine’s Day Treats
The Crumbling Empire of Chocolate
February 13, 2025
It’s hard to imagine a world without chocolate. Yet, as I glanced at the neatly stacked boxes in my local grocery store, each stamped “sourced in West Africa,” I couldn’t help but wonder how this highly commercialized holiday—one that fuels sales of chocolates, roses, and romantic getaways—will evolve in a world where West Africa is increasingly shaped by climate change, deforestation, and rising sea levels.
February 14, 2025 - Driving down Mamelles, making my way to work, I can feel the breeze against my face—a beautiful reminder that it’s February in Dakar. It's the kind of morning that makes you appreciate the city’s charm. There are no obvious signs that it’s Valentine’s Day, except for the supermarket aisles lined with beautifully wrapped chocolates, a spectacle that never fails to make me smile. But this familiar and grotesque display of brown sweets may not be part of our Valentine’s Day traditions forever. It’s daunting to think that, in the next 20 to 30 years, chocolate could become a rare luxury—or even disappear altogether.
Cocoa bean, a key ingredient in the making of chocolate, thrives in warm, humid climates, requiring both rainfall and shade to flourish. But producers warn that deforestation and shifting weather patterns are threatening global supplies. Mondelez International, the company behind Milka and Cadbury, has sounded the alarm: if urgent action isn’t taken, key cocoa-producing regions like Ivory Coast and Ghana—responsible for 60% of the world’s cocoa output—could become unsuitable for cultivation within the next 30 years.
Ivory Coast is the leading producer and exporter of cocoa worldwide. In 2019, it exported cocoa and cocoa preparations worth nearly five billion U.S. dollars. More than 2 million farmers in West Africa depend on cocoa farming. However, in the past decade, the conversion of tropical moist forests into cocoa plantations has fueled deep problems.
Cocoa is a slow food. It can take an entire year for a cocoa tree to produce the cocoa in just 200 grams of chocolate. That is roughly two chocolate bars per cocoa tree. Older trees also yield less cocoa, and most of the world’s cocoa plantations are well past their peak production years. On the other hand, global demand for cocoa is fast-rising—and producers are struggling to keep pace. Americans alone are estimated to consume 26 million kilos of chocolate during the week of Valentine’s Day. It would take 130,000 trees to produce this one-week supply of chocolate to American consumers. Europe, the largest importer of cocoa beans in the world, imported 1.6 billion kilograms of cocoa beans in 2023. The largest volume comes from the Ivory Coast, followed by Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
To accommodate this demand, cocoa farmers usually clear tropical forests to plant new cocoa trees rather than reusing the same land. That practice has spurred massive deforestation in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast. Experts estimate that 70% of the country’s illegal deforestation is related to cocoa farming.
According to Trase, Ivory Coast has lost 45 percent of its total tropical moist forest in the past 2 decades. To put it into perspective, Ivory Coast annually loses forests the area size of New York City.
Forest loss in Ivory Coast (left) and Ghana (right) over the last 60 years:
1/3 of forest loss in these regions is due to cocoa production.
Source: International Wildlife Conservation
The aftermath of deforestation has also had devastating consequences on biodiversity. Ivory Coast, a country once named for the abundance of elephants that roamed its lands, now only has a few hundred elephants that survived the widespread destruction of their natural habitat.
These environmental challenges are only compounded by additional socio-economic issues such as child labor in cocoa harvesting and stark income inequalities. Most West African cocoa farmers already make less than a dollar a day – and many female cocoa farmers make only around 30 cents a day – because the price of cocoa has fallen so low. This sinks them into grinding poverty that makes farmers unable to afford farm improvements. Child labor remains prevalent in cocoa-producing countries, where families often depend on their children’s work to offset high labor costs.
This is a complex global value chain marked by high price volatility and growing climate vulnerabilities. To understand the scale of the crisis in Ivory Coast, I sat down with Jean Paul Aka, Team Leader for Environment, Sustainable and Inclusive Development at UNDP, in Ivory Coast.
Aka knows the harsh realities of cocoa farming firsthand. His father, like many others, lost his cocoa farm. He describes a deep sense of nostalgia in the communities affected by the drought. “Farmers have worked the land for generations and are too attached to uproot their aging cocoa trees. They cling to the hope of a better harvest next season,” he says. Ironically, as global cocoa prices have tripled, local production has declined.
UNDP, in partnership with the government and the private sector, is working to restore hope for these cocoa farmers. For example, Ivory Coast and Ghana are taking active steps to stop deforestation and promote biodiversity, ensuring healthier ecosystems and reducing the need for forest clearance. Through its SCALA programme, UNDP focuses on sustainable agroforestry landscapes.
Aka emphasizes that while these steps are promising, more needs to be done. “We need to make machinery accessible to cooperatives so they can grind and roast cocoa before export.” I couldn’t help but ask, if Ivory Coast supplies 60% of the world’s cocoa, why isn’t it a major player in the global chocolate market?
Aka sighed. “Producing chocolate in Ivory Coast is challenging. Large brands dominate the market, making it difficult for new players to enter.” Unlike other industries, such as peanut butter production, large-scale cocoa processing remains rare in the country. Yet, the first stages of processing—grinding and roasting—are relatively simple. Aka went on to explain the journey of a cocoa bean once it’s harvested: multinational companies buy raw cocoa from Ivory Coast, process it in Europe or the United States (such as grinding and roasting), and then sell it to major chocolate brands like Ferrero, Lindt, and Nestlé. These companies are reluctant to give up their control over the market, which significantly hampers the development of a local chocolate industry.
“This needs to change,” he firmly stated. “If 50% of our cocoa were processed locally, it could create thousands of jobs, increase farmers' incomes, and reduce poverty.”
I asked Aka if we might see chocolates labeled ‘Made in Ivory Coast’ anytime soon. He smiles. “Within the next five to ten years. Africa is growing too fast for it not to happen. The first step is local cocoa processing but it’s possible to see export-standard, locally produced chocolate. We’re already seeing chocolatier schools opening here, so it’s coming.”
This was the most exciting part of the conversation—imagining a future where West African chocolate competes in the global market. But, to achieve this, there must be a profound shift in economic policies and a reduction in multinational dominance over the cocoa value chain.
Although the future may seem bleak, it also holds incredible potential for thoughtful change. With the right policies and investments, West Africa has the potential to transform its cocoa sector into a sustainable, climate friendly, and economically self-sufficient industry. As Aka noted, the future of Ivorian cocoa, and many others in the region, depends on political will and strategic investments in the coming years.
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Author: Bezawit Mekonnen – Communications and Outreach Analyst, UNDP Sub-Regional Hub for West and Central Africa & UNDP Senegal
About UNDP’s work in the West African cocoa industry:
UNDP's Green Commodities Programme, in collaboration with Mondelez International's Cocoa Life, developed a "Forest-friendly Cocoa Note" outlining steps for removing deforestation from cocoa supply chains. This document serves as a guide for stakeholders to work together in safeguarding forests while supporting cocoa farmers. Traceability is key to sustainable cocoa production. UNDP is working with Ivory Coast and Ghana to improve cocoa traceability systems, ensuring that cocoa products are sourced from deforestation-free areas. This effort is crucial for complying with international regulations and promoting ethical cocoa sourcing. UNDP also collaborated with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) and Mondelēz International's Cocoa Life Programme to train over 35,000 farmers on sustainable natural resource and ecosystem management practices.
Learn more at: https://www.undp.org/africa/waca
Learn more about UNDP in Ivory Coast: https://www.undp.org/fr/cote-d-ivoire
Learn more about UNDP in Ghana: https://www.undp.org/ghana
