As the climate crisis intensifies and more planetary boundaries are crossed, it is increasingly evident that our focus needs to be on transformation rather than incremental change. In response, UNDP Istanbul Regional Hub is leading the development of a regional Just Green Transition Strategy for Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus aligning with global climate action goals and UNDP’s commitment to decarbonization and supporting a fair and equal transition.  

We are excited to share our progress and insights, our approach and invite colleagues in any region to connect with us if you are already on this journey or thinking about starting it.

Insights and learnings

In April and May 2024, we conducted a desk review and interviews with a range of stakeholders including internal and external experts in national governments, civic activists, youth, multilateral development banks, UN and technical entities, establishing a community to help guide this new direction, including through online sessions. Our learning questions underlined the complexity and uncertainty of decarbonizing economies, prompting questions like “What are drivers and trends in your country?” and “What are unintended consequences arising from green initiatives?” “What are blind spots or weak signals on the horizon?” etc.  This collaborative and multidisciplinary effort allowed us to tap into a wealth of knowledge and experience, ensuring that our strategy is both comprehensive and tailored to the region. Here are key insights so far: 

• The stakes in the energy transition have gone up even further. Energy security, vulnerability, and poverty are now critical drivers for a just transition in the region, alongside the growing energy demand. Governments have several reasons to reconsider electricity subsidies amidst fiscal challenges and slow output growth. 
• Decarbonization has adverse implications that need to be managed. The geopolitical race for strategic mineral alliances could worsen environmental damage and can even resurface the resource curse in some countries. Policy coherence becomes more complex and new tradeoffs emerge. We need to keep in mind that mining electric vehicle batteries could offset progress on biodiversity conservation.
• Beyond jobs and livelihoods, we must consider a broader spectrum of risks and gains. Rather than focusing only on mitigating negative impacts on jobs and the economy, a proactive approach to regional strategic planning can uncover opportunities in previously untapped areas and identify weak options or red flags. A just transition also means protecting cultural heritage and community identities through rapid economic and environmental changes.
• Winners, losers, and those who left already – the political economy puts people on different sides of the fence initially, and the ability of political leaders to steer through initial hurdles,  short-termism, and spoilers will be essential. At the same time, regions reliant on declining fossil fuel industries face brain drain and migration, and it is important to stop zero-sum arguments from taking hold.
• Recognizing and amplifying regional and local idiosyncrasies. The transition process must be tailored to the unique needs and reflect the socio-economic contexts of each country, region, and even locality. Beyond minimum principles, every region and country must also find the right flavour and format for its social dialogue and solution pathways. At the same time, hesitating with transformative steps could lead to greater environmental damage, reduced competitiveness, and slower growth. There is a need for an open dialogue on tradeoffs and early support for necessary reforms.

Putting ‘Just’ before ‘Green’ 

What exactly is ‘Just’ and who gets to define what is just? By putting ‘just’ before ‘green’, we stress the need for inclusivity and fairness. While the Paris Agreement recognizes that the process of reducing carbon emissions must be a just transition, but there's limited understanding of what this means in practice for individual countries. The concept is traditionally connected with coal mine phaseout and associated job losses, but can it also encompass other actions toward a low carbon future, as envisaged in national development strategies? And how do we know if outcomes are fair? Do we even have the data to track progress?

Together with colleagues in the region and in the international community, we are exploring these and other questions. A basic Just Transition approach means ensuring social equity by including all communities, workers, and social groups in the shift to a net-zero future. It also means facilitating a business environment that creates new jobs, promoting flexible and fair labour markets, and designing adaptable education and skills development systems. It taps into opportunities for exploring new and innovative green business, attracts investments, and enables local innovations and entrepreneurs to flourish.

In its simplest form, Just Transition is climate action that leaves no one behind. But slogans will not help: Just Transitions have clearly distinguishable properties and common traits and a level of complexity that needs to be unpacked, navigated, and managed. In Eurasia, many areas rely on carbon-intensive industries, and transitioning away from coal, often perceived as a legacy of industrial prosperity and social progress, will take time and reassurance that alternatives are viable and beneficial and cheaper, healthier, and reliable – with even better prospects for expanding energy access to low-income households.

Next, we will share more about the criteria for our engagement, the approach, and the following steps in the journey. 

Criteria for healthy and effective Just Transition

• Social dialogue engages people, preferably years before the actual decarbonisation
• Complex information about the aims of decarbonization is "translated" into easy-to-understand communication and widely disseminated to everyone
• Driven with passion by regional and local government leaders - more important than formal structures
• Constructive relationships and trust developed over time between stakeholders
• Active and sustained engagement of citizens; bottom-up approach to generate alternatives
• Competent and inclusive monitoring structures
• Considers age, migration, and skills, in addition to gender
• Mainstreams 'green' into education curriculums to develop green mindsets

We have learned that sharing the benefits of decarbonization requires investing in engaging stakeholders from the very beginning – ideally long before a mine closure – to understand the implications and identify solutions together.

Involving local populations in planning, decision-making and implementation is a great start. Their voices must be heard. This will require comprehensive investment in stakeholder processes.

Our approach: moving beyond linear to applying a system lens 

A transition involves shifting from one system or process of production and consumption to another. To achieve this vision, we adopted mission-oriented approaches that drive systemic change across various sectors. This involves applying a portfolio of interventions that range from policy-level initiatives to physical, behavioural, and narrative changes. and narrative changes.

Mission-oriented approaches apply systems thinking, which focuses on understanding the interconnections between things, events, and ideas. So we strive to capture relationships and processes, recognizing the complexity and interdependence within the system, and accepting that our understanding of the Just Transition is often incomplete. 

Engaging with a just transition ecosystem with the aim of influencing it in a positive direction requires an adaptive approach. This builds on existing linear and technical processes of decarbonization and greening while emphasizing flexibility, social innovations, innovative approaches to governance, and exploring of alternatives. It also demands intellectual ability and professional humility. People living in the communities must be at the centre of efforts, and their ideas and experiences are an important ingredient in unique and lasting solutions pathways.

By taking a broader perspective and focusing on the interrelationships within systems, we can disentangle complex issues and observe their interactions. This broader view enables us to navigate the complexities and work towards a more inclusive and equitable transition. 

Moving forward 

As we progress, our next steps include synthesizing insights from the recent interviews and workshops and engaging our thematic experts and practitioners at the country level to develop a strategic framework. This involves creating an insight report, a narrative pitch, and illustrative pathways. We aim to establish a community of practice for ongoing collaboration and learning, while expanding our partnerships at regional and country-levels.

Co-designing this strategic direction with colleagues and external partners is essential, as the topic of Just Transition intersects all areas of our work. This process encourages us to overcome thematic silos and experiment with new, interconnected and mutually reinforcing interventions. Programmatic integration will be key to our effectiveness in the future.

As we approach COP29, we are ready to seize new strategic opportunities to drive scalable interventions and advance the Just Transition movement. Stay tuned for more updates and insights and feel free to share your experiences and contributions as we navigate this crucial moment together.