Alessandro Bianciardi, Dep. Head of Coop, EU Office in Kosovo 
Nora Latifi, Program Director, GAP Institute 
Alban Hashani, Executive Director, Riinvest Institute 
Lirim Krasniqi, Executive Co-Director, Germin 
Partners and Colleagues, 
Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is a pleasure to have you all with us for a conversation on what the polycrisis means for Kosovo - and how we can navigate in the times of uncertainty. To frame the discussion, we will be presenting the findings of two assessments that look at the impact that the war in Ukraine has had on Kosovo – and provide prospects for the way forward.

According to UNDP’s Human Development Report, growing global turmoil has led to reversals in human development progress in 90 percent of countries around the world. The pandemic – compounded by inequalities, climate shocks, rapid technological innovation, and social mistrust – has whipped up a perfect storm negatively affecting the human progress. 

The report tells us that human development has fallen back to 2016 levels – when the Agenda 2030 started - reversing much of the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.  
 
After the outbreak of the COVID pandemic, the world has transformed - into one of uncertainty. Societies – and global community at large - are struggling to respond to back-to-back crises. The pandemic did not only disrupt our daily lives but also revealed the fragility of our systems. 

Intersecting uncertainties means that crises are having devasting impacts on our deeply connected societies. In the past year, we have seen the greatest cost-of-living-crisis in a generation and a looming global food insecurity crisis that is threatening to leave hundreds of millions without food. 

The COVID pandemic, beyond its damage to people’s health and mental wellbeing, has also devastated economies and worsened gender inequality.
 
Due to the far-reaching effects beyond borders, UNDP has been conducting assessments around the world to understand the impacts of the war in Ukraine. 

Understanding the impacts and risks help us to navigate in the uncertainty, and together, shape our future. Insecurity often develops from uncertainty, but it doesn't have to. The way we prepare for and manage risks will determine how well we can handle future challenges. 
 
UNDP has explored different methodologies to understand the multi-layered crisis that we are dealing with and to assess the impact of the war in Ukraine. The assessments present a complex outlook for Kosovo’s economy and how to tackle the consequences both through short-term measures and long-term systemic changes. 

One major concern highlighted is remittances. While they have reached historic heights, it is possible that expectations between senders and receivers on future flows may not be aligned. With the high living costs putting pressure on families, we need to be prepared to support them. 
 
Kosovo is at crossroads facing complex issues that require thoughtful and well-informed policy-making and investments, within a volatile regional economic context. The increased inflation, commodity prices, and disruption in supply chains have been particularly felt by those in most vulnerable situations.  
 
The energy and green transition are critical for Kosovo as it moves along on its EU integration journey. The Green Agenda and decarbonization initiatives will contribute to a major transformation and create new opportunities – but they also come with a price tag, and they need to be well managed. 

To achieve the SDGs – leaving no one behind – Kosovo needs to focus on an inclusive and equitable growth strategy. This includes targeted social protection and creation of new green jobs. 

These two assessments allow us to reflect on how data-driven assessments - and strategic foresight in general - can be utilized for planning and decision-making. In an uncertain world, evidence-based planning and decision-making, rigorous projections and agile assessments are critical. 
 
As UNDP, we believe that policies that focus on investment, insurance, and innovation will enable people to thrive in the face of uncertainty. 

Investments, from renewable energy to preparedness for pandemics and extreme natural events. 

Insurance, including social protection to prepare societies for the contingencies of an uncertain world. 

Innovation in its many forms - technological, economic, and cultural – to respond to the unknown challenges ahead. 
 
We believe that creating an early warning system and better understanding of challenges ahead can enable communities to anticipate better, take action, and reduce the impact of crises. 

Navigating uncertainty requires open and inclusive dialogue, to explore what communities want for their futures. 

I look forward to interesting presentations and a great discussion!