Primary Commodity Booms and Busts

Primary Commodity Booms And Busts

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Primary Commodity Booms and Busts

July 3, 2024

Many African economies with abundant natural resources suffer from slow growth and widespread poverty. Dependence on commodities often fails to generate development because volatile international prices can lead to macroeconomic and political instability. The concentration of wealth in oil and minerals can encourage rent-seeking and corruption. Mobilizing resources from primary commodities can slow down higher-productivity manufacturing so that oil or minerals come to dominate national production (e.g. mining accounts for 65% of GDP in the Republic of the Congo). However, with the right policies in place, commodity-dependent countries can achieve rapid growth, macroeconomic stability, and an accelerated reduction in poverty and inequality. Botswana, for example, per capita income increased by 4.5 percent per year from 1990 to 2014, life expectancy significantly increased, under-five mortality declined, and access to education improved. This report aims to inform countries that depend on primary commodities on how to maximize the development impact of their policy regimes.