By Elba Fuster Figuerola

During the months of lockdown, the world has experienced a drastic reduction of GHG emissions in years, raising hopes among many that a cleaner future is possible if we all take our part in it. The effects of COVID-19 on urban mobility have been determinant in this extraordinary reduction of GHG.

Before the pandemic, we already knew that roughly 23% of GHG emissions were generated by the transport sector, and that cities were the source of 70% of GHG emissions worldwide. The rapid urbanisation and increase in motorisation were steadily increasing these trends, particularly in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs).

Moreover, according to WHO, the increasing air pollution in cities is the responsible of more than 3 million deaths globally. These figures are even more worrying in the case of LMICs, where, according to the Global Mobility Report 2017, the increased motorisation of the last decades and the extensive use of fossil fuels is responsible that 98% of cities in these countries do not meet the air quality guidelines established by the World Health Organisation, compared to 56% of cities located in wealthier countries.

Urban mobility is important beyond its relevance to climate change

But, as important as it is, the impact of the design of urban mobility systems goes well beyond its effects on environmental sustainability and health. Mobility in itself is a means for accessing valuable resources that people need to lead fulfilled lives, such as jobs, education or health. Therefore, it has  an extremely strong social and economic component that can’t be forgotten in public decisions regarding this topic.

Affordable public mobility systems in urban contexts can greatly contribute to shape the employment opportunities of communities living in suburbs. Suitable connections between neighbourhoods and the most economic areas of a city can help preventing the marginalisation of these areas and support the revitalisation of the local economy. In fact, accessibility to a public transport network is the main indicator proposed to measure the achievement of target 11.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals, regarding the provision of accessible, affordable and safe public transport for all.

The design of urban mobility systems, both in infrastructure and service delivery, will also determine the inclusivity of these services and how they serve the needs of specific and vulnerable communities. Attention to physical accessibility is fundamental for groups with disabilities, while some elements of the design of the services, such as intermodal options, pricing policies or the distribution of access points in the last mile will be very relevant to establish to which extent the system supports the mobility needs of all actors, such as the mobility of care, normally concerning women.

COVID19 has disrupted all urban mobility modalities

During COVID-19 lockdowns, a lot of data has been generated on how human mobility has been drastically reduced – a very visual source being COVID-19 mobility reports. This situation and the change of behaviours has strongly disrupted all mobility modalities, leaving in front of us a new and uncertain landscape:

• Public transportation systems (or mass-transit systems), comprising subways and bus networks, have been deeply affected and currently find themselves in a very delicate economic situation. Lockdowns have led to a decrease of between 70-90% of ridership, while operating costs have increased in order to maintain a minimum service level and implement costly safety measures. Return to pre-COVID19 passenger numbers seems unlikely for the rest of 2020, given the increased risk perception of users and social distancing measures, which increases the gravity of their current financial situation. 
• Informal transportation is a key component of urban mobility in many cities of the global South, serving almost 80% of public transport users in African cities and 30% in Latin American ones. These unregulated and unconventional transport modes with flexible fares and schedules are provided by private drivers that have seen the entirety of their income reduced to almost nothing during COVID-19. It is thus not clear the capacity of these operators to maintain their activity during the hard months ahead. 
• Shared mobility and micromobility services have also been extremely affected, some of them suffering a quasi-total reduction of rides in some cities. However, these actors have been extremely reactive, fast adapting their operations for disinfection, conducting communication campaigns and adapting their business models to new users or services, which brings some hope on the capacity of several of them to ride this out.
• Upsurge of bicycle use and extension of bike lines in all cities, from Bogotá to Seoul and from Kampala to Barcelona, especially during the first phases of reopening. However, it still needs to be clear if these will just be temporary arrangements or if cities will decide to invest in proper infrastructure to maintain and further promote this trend.
• Some initial surveys indicate a rise in the preference to use private motorised vehicles for daily trips due to the social distancing recommendations and the perception of danger in public transport, particularly in countries such as China and the US, rising concerns among some on whether the return to activity in cities will strangle them with motorised vehicles and bring pollution to even higher levels than before COVID-19.

Besides the changes that the COVID-19 has provoked in several of these transport modalities, it’s also important to consider the impact that the pandemic might have on mobility habits of the “new normal”, and to which extent teleworking will become more usual for more companies and workers. If so, the new mobility might display new patterns less related to work-related mobility, and draw the lines of new user requirements.

The key role of public support to innovate in public transportation

It is undeniable the impact that the pandemic has already had on urban mobility systems these past months, and the potential effects that it can leave in the years to come. In the following months, policymakers will be taking decisions that can be extremely determinant for the future of mobility in their cities. Public authorities will need to strengthen their support to the existing public transportation systems and find new ways of making them more efficient. 

Innovation and technology should play a key role in developing solutions that make these public means of transport safer, less costly and more attractive. Urban mobility systems will also need to adapt to new times, experiment and enhance new and alternative mobility solutions, integrating shared mobility schemes and personal mobility devices into the overall mobility picture of the cities.

Supporting the weakened start-ups ecosystems and testing some of their solutions in mobility will also be key to uptake innovations and to ensure the survival of the promising new companies. In many cities in the global South, measures will also need to be taken regarding informal transportation operators, if a backbone of their urban mobility systems is to be preserved.

City councils will also need to define how they want the mobility of the future to look like in their cities. To maintain and increase the current levels of popularity of walking and cycling as clean modes of transport, the current bike lanes and pedestrian areas should become permanent and extended, and the overall planning of the city should focus on designing cities of walkable neighbourhoods, similar to the 15-minute city concept.

This will include rethinking the role of cars in cities. Despite the likely push that electrical vehicles adoption will have in some regions, it’s also worth considering if we’ll evolve to a future of electric vehicles’ traffic jams, or if it’s time of changing the paradigm of mobility in cities.

According to the UN DESA World Urbanisation Prospects of 2014, it is expected that, at the current urbanisation rate, by 2050, 66% of world population will be living in cities, and 90% of this increase will be in African and Asian populations. Therefore, it is not exaggerated to say that the choices that city leaders will take in the domain of urban mobility now will be affecting the lives of a majority of their countries’ population, while contributing greatly to the global efforts to mitigate climate change.

These seem more than sufficient reasons for making socially and environmentally sustainable urban mobility systems a priority in COVID-19 recovery agenda, investing in their improvement for the sake of future generations, while testing and integrating innovative solutions that look at public mobility of the future.