LocationsRunning Dry: Addressing Water Stress in LAC
June 26, 2024
Driven by population growth, agricultural expansion, and industrial needs, global water demand has doubled since 1960. In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), demand is expected to continue to grow, increasing 43% by 2050, nearly double the global average growth of 20-25%.[1]
Recent years have witnessed a series of intense droughts affecting countries in the region. In 2023, Mexico endured its driest year on record, with droughts affecting 55% of its territory. A similar plight was faced by Uruguay, prompting the government to declare a water emergency due to critically low water storage, impacting over 60% of the population. Meanwhile, water reservoirs in Chile, and cities such as Bogotá and Mexico City, are dangerously close to the possibility of water depletion.
Water stress reflects the relationship between water demand and supply in an area. Demands on water, for domestic, agricultural, or industrial needs, combined with the supply of renewable sources like rivers and groundwater, determine water stress levels. The closer the demand is to the supply, the higher the stress, making the area more vulnerable to scarcity. High-stress levels indicate greater competition among users for water access.
This #GraphForThought uses data from the World Resources Institute to explore current and projected levels of water stress in LAC, considering climate change scenarios and rising global temperatures. Figure 1 showcases the percentage of countries grappling with water stress, ranging from Low-Medium to Extremely High levels based on resource utilization. Countries with Extremely High stress use over 80% of their water resources to cover their productive and domestic needs, making even short droughts a significant risk. Considering that climate change impacts water supply, the analysis further scrutinizes water stress concerning diverse temperature increase scenarios, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic outcomes compared to a baseline from 1979-2019: (1) the optimistic scenario, where temperature increases by 2100 aligns with the Paris Agreement, (2) the intermediate scenario, where current climate mitigation efforts continue, and (3) the pessimistic scenario, where fossil fuel use intensifies, leading to even higher temperatures.
Under a "Business as Usual" scenario, without intensified climate change mitigation efforts, nearly half of the region's countries will face medium to extreme water stress by 2080. Specifically, 29% will experience medium to high stress, while 16% will face high to extreme stress. Mitigating temperature increases could prevent the situation from worsening, potentially maintaining levels similar to the baseline by 2080.
The consequences of water stress are consistent across countries; however, the severity varies significantly within each country. Droughts often worsen inequalities related to water access, as evidenced in a previous #GraphForThought.
The impact of water stress goes beyond environmental concerns. It can impact health, as scarcity can lead to the consumption of contaminated water and poor sanitation. It impacts nutrition as food can become scarce and more expensive. It has an impact on livelihoods, as land yields decline. Reports suggest that between 1970 and 2019, South America alone lost approximately US$ 28 billion due to droughts. Furthermore, in 2023, major crop losses reached 30% in Argentina and 80% in Peru as a result of droughts. Unprecedented droughts also disrupted vessel traffic through the Panama Canal, affecting a substantial portion of the country's GDP and a significant share of global maritime trade.
Water stress also has an impact on energy. Over the last two decades, more than half of LAC’s energy came from hydroelectric power generators, a trend that has been steadily increasing as presented in a previous #GraphForThought. However, water stress is making it a less reliable energy source. In April, Ecuador, which relies on hydroelectric plants for over three-quarters of its electricity, declared a state of emergency and began rationing electricity due to insufficient rainfall.
However, the water situation in LAC involves more than just water stress. Forecasts indicate that while some countries will face lower precipitation levels, others will have shorter rainy seasons along with more extreme rainfall events, where a month's worth of rain can fall within a short period (IPCC, 2021). Currently, aquifers and landscapes cannot absorb this excess water, leading to significant runoff and prolonged droughts. This calls for strategic planning and investment to efficiently manage water during both dry and wet periods, mitigating the effects of climate change and easing pressure on existing supplies.
LAC is a region that is rich in water resources, but at the same time is thirsty for solutions to address a worsening water stress situation. Enhancing water governance and management is essential to bolster resilience against climate-related shocks. Examples from cities like Singapore and Las Vegas demonstrate that societies can thrive in water-scarce conditions with strategies such as replacing water-intensive grass, implementing desalination, and enhancing wastewater treatment and reuse. Political commitment and adequate financial support are essential for countries to avert water stress evolving into a full-fledged water crisis.
[1] The increase in water demand is calculated based on 2019 levels.
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